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Dick Randolph was elected to the Alaska State Legislature in 1980 on Ed Clark’s coat-tails. A bunch of other Alaska Libertarians were elected that year as well. Clark polled something close to 2 to 3% statewide.

That in and of itself, was a huge victory by the Clark Campaign.

You write: “No matter how hard you try you can’t spin a 393,000 vote total into a success.”

You’re absolutely right.

And no matter how hard you try, you can’t spin Ron Paul’s 435,000 vote total, or Ed Clark’s 920,000 vote total into success.

Yeah, Bergland helped Marrou get elected to state legislature—and then Marrou got Bergland-like vote totals, rather than even Badnarik-like totals, as a presidential candidate.

As far as coattails go, Badnarik’s campaign helped Ben Brandon raise the money to get elected so that he could desert back to the GOP; so much for coattails.

I did not “predict” “over ‘1 million’” for Badnarik. I said that I would consider the campaign a failure if he got less than 600,000. He did and I do. It was not, however, some kind of unprecedented disaster. On raw vote totals, it was middle of the road for the LP. When controlling for other factors it did worse in some respects (broadcast media coverage, for example), and better in others (ratio of campaign money and campaign time to votes, for example) than previous campaigns.

Tom Knapp

Get real Thomas. No matter how hard you try you can’t spin a 393,000 vote total into a success.

You yourself were predicting over “1 million” for Badnarik.

Not too mention the fact, that the guy absolutely bombed with national media. No O’Reilly Factor, No CNN, virtually nothing.

Hell, even Bergland made it on Ted Koppel’s Nightline.

And Bergland at least helped to elect Andre Marrou to the Alaska Legislature in 1984.

What State Legislator was elected on Michael Badnarik’s coattails?

No, the Badnarik Campaign was one of the very worst in Libertarian Party history.

If he had made it over 500,000 it wouldn’t have been so bad.

But 393,000??? That sucked!!

Eric knows better. Don’t let him screw with your mind.

Badnarik got nearly as many votes as Ron Paul, in a tighter election, with 1/4 the campaign money (adjusted for inflation) and 1/3 the campaign time as the nominee.

Badnarik got half as many votes as Clark, in a tigher election, with 1/8th the campaign money (adjusted for inflation) and 1/3 the campaign time as the nominee.

Eric is just so pissed off that Badnarik didn’t implode to sub-Bergland vote totals that he tries to pretend that that’s what happened.

C’mon, Eric, you got your steak dinner. Lighten up. Badnarik did incredibly well given his standing start ($0 and no staff as of the nomination, with five months to campaign) and the party’s internal situation (effective insolvency bordering on bankruptcy, with at least one ballot access mishap), and you know it. You don’t have to LIKE it, but that’s the way it happened.

Tom Knapp

Badnarik had a near dissastrous showing in 2004?

What the Hell are you talking about? The Party had just been through several years of mis-management and Michael Badnarik managed to unite the party and hold us even with our vote result from 4 years before.

What do you mean Eric Dondero “was pushing Dave Jaye for the Libertarian Party nomination…” I still am.

In fact, he’d be the perfect sidekick VP for Stanhope. Dave is absolutely the funniest politician you’d ever meet. Being a former State Senator would add a great deal of credibility to the Stanhope ticket.

Let’s look at Libertarian Party history.

Ed Clark 1 million votes in 1980

David Bergland 228,000 votes in 1984

Ron Paul 435,000 votes in 1988

What happened in the LP in 1985 was an extreme counter-reaction to the Bergland dissaster. LPers were so blindsided in the head, by Bergland’s dissastrous showing that they went all the way to the other extreme – celebrity, name recognition, respectability – end of the spectrum and recruited Ron Paul.

Badnarik had a near dissastrous showing in 2004. Maybe not quite as bad as Bergland. (Nobody could every top Bergland for being the most dismal Presidential candidate the LP ever ran).

You all need a serious counter-reaction to the Badnarik dissaster.

Roll the dice bigtime!

Now if Jesse Ventura or Gary Johnson were to declare, I’d say time for Stanhope to step aside.

But I doubt if you all are going to get either one of them.

Stanhope in my mind is sort of a cross between a Minor and Major Celebrity.

He’s not really a Major Celeb like Kurt Russell or Clint Eastwood.

But he’s neither a 2nd tier Celeb like say a Don Gorman, Ed Thompson, or Judge Gray. He’s more Celeb than just about anyone you all could come up with. (Well, then again, perhaps Bob Prechter or Mark Skousen?)

Go with it! I’ll petition my ass off for Stanhope, as will Jake, Al, Tray and the rest of the hardcore lnationwide ibertarian petitioning cadre.

We won’t do that for a Phillies, Carole Moore or Michael Badnarik.

Like I said, I’m reserving judgment on Stanhope. I know that he endorsed Badnarik in 2004 and I believe he allowed that endorsement to be used/flogged extensively, etc. He’s not just popping up having never been involved before.

On the other hand, it occurs to me that there are reasons why:

a) The Republicans have never nominated Dennis Miller or Larry Miller for president of the United States;

b) The Democrats have never nominated Al Franken or Whoopi Goldberg for president of the United States; and

c) The electorate never elected Pat Paulsen president of the United States.

Nothing against comedians, but the obvious and natural first reaction to the idea of a comedian—especially one who has not previously sought or won public office—running for president is that, well, it’s a joke.

Still, I welcome Stanhope’s announcement. Maybe he’ll turn out to be a king-hell campaigner with a solid ability to talk to America about liberty. If nothing else, he raises the bar a bit, since his opponents for the nomination will have to at least compete with some minor name recognition and obvious wit/quickness on feet.

As far as Bumper goes, I think he’d do a good job as a candidate. He was doing outreach to Spanish-speaking voters before that became de rigeur. He’s an engaging speaker, he has a solid base of support in the libertarian movement (which would bode well for early fundraising), and my perception is that he’s a hard worker who would be willing to get out on the road and campaign hard.

He’s also got military credentials, which I believe will be useful in 2008 (graduate of the Virginia Military Institute, infantry officer in the US Army, and author of at least one book on military policy written long before the current situations).

No, he’s not a “celebrity” candidate. I don’t think that Stanhope is exactly a household name, either, though, and “celebrity” is not the only worthwhile consideration, nor is having previously been elected to office. Mr. Dondero was pushing former Michigan state senator David Jaye as a possible nominee for awhile. Former state senator sounds nice, until you find out that Jaye was expelled from the Senate over drunk driving and domestic abuse charges.

If I could have everything I wanted in a candidate, I’d have a well-known, respected movie star who had just wrapped up his second wildly successful term as the elected Libertarian governor of a large state following his four terms in the US House, to which he was elected after collecting his Oscar for the autobiographical film about how he won the Medal of Honor as a Marine, and who had “perfect” libertarian policy positions (from my perspective of course) on all issues.

Anyone want to lay money on me getting what I want? No? I didn’t think so.

I’ll settle for a candidate who’s engaging, speaks well, hasn’t done hard time for a series of axe murders, and runs on a reasonably libertarian platform. Extra points for having a nice resume—elected to office, ran some major and well-thought-of organization, decorated veteran, “public personality” with good name recognition, etc., of course, but beggars can’t be choosers and we’re unlikely to get ALL of those things.

Regards,
Tom Knapp

Still, I’d take him way before Doug Stanhope.

Hornberger meets two of the three criteria you’re always posing as qualifications (he’s a college graduate—bachelors from Virginia Military Institute, and a law degree—and a veteran).

He hasn’t been elected to office before (that I know of), but neither, so far as I know, has Doug Stanhope.

Nothing against Doug Stanhope, of course—and I’ll reserve judgment until I see more—but he’s not exactly a “major” celebrity, nor does his particular variety of celebrity seem to lend itself well to a “serious” presidential campaign.

Hornberger, on the other hand, has spent the last 15-20 years putting libertarian op-eds into newspapers around the country (often with his name on them), speaking persuasively to non-libertarian audiences, successfully debating non-libertarians on public policy, etc. He doesn’t have GREAT name recognition by any stretch of the imagination, but then neither does Stanhope (hint: “Doug Stanhope” returns half as many Google hits as “Michael Badnarik”).

The last time Hornberger ran for office, he only polled 1/9th as many votes as Ed Clark did in 1980. Then again, he did it in 1/50th of the number of states (106,055 votes for US Senate from Virginia in 2002). He didn’t get those votes on the LP ticket, by the way—nor did I notice that the “draft site” specifies that he should necessarily run for president on the LP ticket, either.

Tom Knapp