Democrat Ankrum Polls His Own Race

Well, I find this highly suspect because it was conducted by the Democratic candidate… but it’s the only poll of any kind that I’ve seen on the Texas CD-10 race that features Michael Badnarik.

Not exactly great numbers for Badnarik, but again… the accuracy of it is somewhat in question. I would like to see an independent poll of this race to know if they’re making any kind of dent or not.

Question 3. The three Candidates for Congress are Michael McCaul, the Republican, Ted Ankrum, the Democrat, and Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian.

=> 50.8% Would you vote for Michael McCaul, the Republican?

=> 41.6% Would you vote for Ted Ankrum, the Democrat?

=> 7.6% Would you vote for Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian?

DailyKos has the details…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/9/3/14750/89247

23 Responses to “Democrat Ankrum Polls His Own Race”

  1. Jackcjackson Says:

    I hardly ever hear/read anything about Badnarik. barely find any mentions or even online news stories. Actually, I read what you posted already because I did a Google News search and that poll was the only recent thing that came up. other than the typcial “also running is Libertarian Michael Badnarik.” And not even many of those recently.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the the polls WERE somewhat accurate. I can’t imagine his support being any higher than high single digits at this point. Though hopefully something great will happen in the next 2 months that will at least give him a shot. Still waiting for Hacker’s great plans, I guess.

  2. Jackcjackson Says:

    Oh, I forgot. There was that story a couple weeks ago about Badnarik asking Ankrum to withdraw.

  3. Nigel Watt Says:

    I asked about that poll on Badnarik.org, and this is the reply I got: Hi Nigel,

    I think we shouldn’t be concerned. Our polling, focused a bit differently, tells a different story.

    The important points are that the Dem didn’t withdraw, and that, and this is our point not his, 60% of the voters are looking at voting for someone else. That doesn’t mean rotating back to the other major party, that means exactly what it says: someone else.

    National polls have been saying this for months. The voters are fed up with the revolving politics-as-usual door.

    This is far from over.

    0

  4. Joey Dauben Says:

    When the TV ads hit – if they do – that will tell a much different story in the campaign.

    It’s hard to believe that it’s already here (election season). Time flies.

  5. Darcy G Richardson Says:

    The only television in Badnarik’s campaign will probably be the new 50” plasma TV Allen Hacker buys for himself from the huge salary he’s pulling down as campaign manager. According to FEC Reports, Hacker, or more precisely his firm “Articulate Management,” has already been paid $93,750 since signing on as Badnarik’s campaign manager in August 2005. This includes twenty-four checks totaling $74,250 that Hacker, who also conveniently serves as Badnarik’s campaign treasurer, has written to himself during the first six months of 2006. It’s all there in the FEC Reports.

    Hacker’s so-called “secret plan” to win the Texas CD-10 race has always had a Nixonian ring to it. But that’ll become clearer to Badnarik’s contributors about a half-hour after the polls close on November 7 when the LP’s one-time presidential candidate barely breaks double-digit percentage, if that.

  6. Chris Moore Says:

    I found it very odd that the campaign would call for Ankrum to drop-out. The best response Ankrum could have given was this poll. At least it did get Badnarik in the news:

    http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/story?oid=oid%3A401182

    Though the title should give away the slant: “Libertarian La-La Land …”

    My guess is that this may be part of “the plan”. Maybe after getting some press from this poll (albeit negative), the Badnarik campaign intends to release its own polling. Who knows. I hope their data says something different, and that they decided to actually poll and not push. Personally, I’m worried. Allen Hacker simply telling me not to worry doesn’t help.

  7. Tom Bryant Says:

    Badnarik TV ads? I have heard that the campaign is planning on bypassing the media with their TV ads, opting instead to burn them onto DVDs and drop them off at people’s door.

    An interesting idea, but one that I think will be largely ineffective. There is a percentage of people that don’t have a DVD player, and will be insulted by the drop. The majority, I would imagine, would simply throw the DVD out without watching it – that is what I would do if I got a campaign DVD from a candidate. The ones who do watch it, will likely watch it one time and then forget about it. Effective media campaigning requires at least 17 impressions before it starts to get ingrained in the minds of people.

    I hope that there are some tricks up the campaign’s sleeve. There’s been a lot of talk about some secret plan, I’m not very confident that there is one, but I hope I am wrong.

    The Michigan LP ran a strong Senate race in 1996 that raised a few hundred thousand dollars. The campaign had the honor of bringing the largest demonstration in Michigan’s history to the Capitol Building in Lansing. Ted Nugent was featured at a rally for our candidate.

    Come November, we only got 4% of the vote. But more importantly, that campaign brought in dozens of activists, many becoming our elected city councilmen.

    So…if Badnarik’s totals are disappointing as I think they will be, we should be aware that even a 4% race can be a huge boon for a state party.

  8. NewFederalist Says:

    I received an email from the Badnarik campaign about the “secret plan” and it apparently didn’t work out (it was a good idea but…) so they are now on to plan B. Too bad but I would have to guess a very distant third place finish that might break double digits is about all that can be expected at this point.

  9. Jackcjackson Says:

    BTW, are there any debates planned? Is Badnarik invited?

  10. Tom Bryant Says:

    NewFederalist,

    Wasn’t the secret plan getting huge donations from issue groups that weren’t really formed yet?

    I wouldn’t go around saying I have this secret plan unless I have something a little more concrete that a wish that some deep pockets would organize around me.

  11. Joey Dauben Says:

    So are you guys a bit peaved that the Badnarik campaign has raised a lot of money and has little (ads, TV, signs, etc.) to show for it, or what is the deal here?

    It sounds like the sentiment I was reading about involving the Harry Browne-Perry Willis controversy. I mean, as a former presidential candidate, I would think that the TV ads would be a no-brainer.

  12. Chris Moore Says:

    Well Joey, the election hasn’t happened yet, so I’m personally not peeved about anything yet. Ankrum’s poll has a real margin of error of about +-8-9%, so it may imply that Badnarik could walk away with 16-20% today with the potential for more come November.

    But if Badnarik receives around 8% in this race, then it will be generally because of one of two reasons: either the campaign wasn’t run as effectively as it could have been, or it was run effectively, but 8% is the ceiling for a relatively well financed Libertarian in a 3 way race. Either one is a good reason to be upset, although the latter would be more upsetting in general.

    Personally, I found calling for Ankrum to drop out to be a fairly silly move, and the press releases have been (IMO) poorly written. But Hacker may have more up his sleeve. I don’t know. I’m willing to give him and especially Badnarik the benefit of the doubt until after the election.

  13. NewFederalist Says:

    Tom Bryant- that was the “secret plan” that came across in the lengthy (even rambling) email. Not a bad idea but as you say not much to stake an entire campaign on especially if it doesn’t come through. Plan B doesn’t look so good in contrast. That is why I think this race is not going to produce the “breakthrough” that has been widely touted.

  14. Joey Dauben Says:

    I do believe Hacker has a calling nationally if he were to prove that Badnarik’s campaign is no fluke.

    If the campaign can’t crack 15% on Nov. 7, I think it will speak volumes. Nice RV though.

    If anyone sees any TV ads, let me know. I’d like to see one on the Net.

  15. Gene Berkman Says:

    Actually, given the performance of Libertarian candidates in the past, getting 7.6% in a poll this early is positive. But it is likely, even with his large campaign treasury, that Badnarik will come in a distant third.

    Bear in mind, the Republicans and the Democrats start the campaign with a big block of loyal voters, and then spend huge sums to effect about 5% of the voters. A Libertarians starts with a very small following, so it would take much more in campaign funds to become even with either major party.

  16. Eric Dondero Says:

    I’ve been predicting 8% all along. Early on, some LPers slammed me for it. Not braggin’ or nothing, but it now it looks like I was right on.

    Here’s another prediction; 27% for Libertarian Bob Smither. He will beat the Republican write-in Shelly Sekula-Gibbs. He had a shot of winning at one point, but I fear fundraising has not panned out for him, despite excellent media, including national media.

    Still, mid to high 20s is not bad at all.

    Could catapult Smither to be the Libertarian Presidential candidate in 2008. The guy is a Ph.D., has an incredible personal history, much of it quite tragic, and having met Bob, he’s just a very nice friendly, soft-spoken, thoughtful guy.

    Ironic, all the money from LPers went to Badnarik – north of Houston, yet the big race for the LP in 2006 will be a couple Districts away in south Houston.

    For continuous coverage of the Smither campaign: www.mainstreamlibertarian.com

  17. david Says:

    I live in this district. The incumbent Rep. will win with low to Mid 50%. the Dem. has no money and no name ID. he will get high 30’s to about 40% of the vote. Badnarik may make it into the low teens but I doubt it. Yes, they are runing for office to make a living not to win the election. I have not gotten any mail from any of these campaigns, not have I seen any ads on TV, Radio, or newspaper. I can’t remember hearing any one discuss this particular race.

  18. Hammer of Truth » 8% is the new 2% for Libertarians Says:

    [...] Similarly, I heard tell that Badnarik’s numbers were around 7-8%, according to a poll taken by the Democratic challenger in the race, Ted Ankrum. [...]

  19. Allen Hacker Says:

    Where’s my response?

    Answers to questions about the district, our poll, media….

    Why hasn’t it showed up?

    0

  20. Stuart Richards Says:

    Dunno… try reposting it?

  21. Allen Hacker Says:

    Twice is enough, Stuart.

    As I’ve just explained over at HoT, I’m done with this.

    0

  22. Lloyd Laughlin Says:

    I predict 52% WIN for SMITHER, first Libertarian EVER to be elected to Congress.

    e-mail me and i’ll tell u why: laughlinou@yahoo.com

    www.smither4congress.com

    LLL

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