Comments on: Smither Not a Major Factor in TX-22 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/ Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:08:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1.3 by: my first car http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-167288 Mon, 23 Apr 2007 20:21:05 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-167288 <strong>my first car</strong> my first car my first car

my first car

]]> by: Mike N. http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-111742 Fri, 09 Feb 2007 17:33:29 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-111742 Smither's fundraising results: http://disinter.wordpress.com/2007/02/09/bob-smither-fundraising-was-a-huge-success/ Smither’s fundraising results:

http://disinter.wordpress.com/2007/02/09/bob-smither-fundraising-was-a-huge-success/

]]> by: rj http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64544 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 19:57:07 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64544 The best way to answer that is how write-ins have been treated in the past by the government and judicial system of Texas as far as precedent. Have they been friendly to them in the past. The best way to answer that is how write-ins have been treated in the past by the government and judicial system of Texas as far as precedent. Have they been friendly to them in the past.

]]> by: Austin Cassidy http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64530 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 18:17:29 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64530 I think they're reasonable about it if the intent is clear. I could be totally wrong, but I think both of your examples would be deemed valid. Under normal circumstances I'm not sure how concerned the SoE would be with keeping accurate records of write-in votes and setting aside questionable ballots, etc... but since there's a viable write-in I think they pay more attention. I think they’re reasonable about it if the intent is clear. I could be totally wrong, but I think both of your examples would be deemed valid.

Under normal circumstances I’m not sure how concerned the SoE would be with keeping accurate records of write-in votes and setting aside questionable ballots, etc… but since there’s a viable write-in I think they pay more attention.

]]> by: Jeremy http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64529 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 18:02:51 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64529 There is something I've been wondering: what happens to misspelled write-in votes? For example, suppose someone mispells 'sekula' as 'sekulla', or drops it entirely and just writes in 'Gibbs', do these votes count? There is something I’ve been wondering: what happens to misspelled write-in votes? For example, suppose someone mispells ‘sekula’ as ‘sekulla’, or drops it entirely and just writes in ‘Gibbs’, do these votes count?

]]> by: Eric Dondero http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64423 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 08:23:25 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64423 Let's just all keep this bogus poll in mind next Wednesday when the results are in. All those Libertarians who say that Zogby is somehow a friend of Libertarians will have to give the rest of us a mea culpa. I'm sticking by my prediction, being someone who actually lives a stone's throw away from the District 22 line, Smither beats Sekula-Gibbs with high 20s to her low teens. Outside shot that Bob can win outright. What's being lost in all the discussion here is that there's a prominent libertarian running for Governor of Texas. Perhaps you all heard of him. KINKY FRIEDMAN!!!! Friedman voters in CD 22 will vote for Bob Smither. Keep in mind Jesse Ventura was 10 points behind in the polls the day before he won the Governorship of MN. Bet the same is true for Kinky. Kinky voters are Bob Smither voters. Both libertarian candidates, Kinky and Bob, will do much better than the experts predicted. Let’s just all keep this bogus poll in mind next Wednesday when the results are in. All those Libertarians who say that Zogby is somehow a friend of Libertarians will have to give the rest of us a mea culpa.

I’m sticking by my prediction, being someone who actually lives a stone’s throw away from the District 22 line, Smither beats Sekula-Gibbs with high 20s to her low teens. Outside shot that Bob can win outright.

What’s being lost in all the discussion here is that there’s a prominent libertarian running for Governor of Texas. Perhaps you all heard of him.

KINKY FRIEDMAN!

Friedman voters in CD 22 will vote for Bob Smither.

Keep in mind Jesse Ventura was 10 points behind in the polls the day before he won the Governorship of MN. Bet the same is true for Kinky. Kinky voters are Bob Smither voters.

Both libertarian candidates, Kinky and Bob, will do much better than the experts predicted.

]]> by: Lex http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64384 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 04:15:14 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64384 A write-in candidate will not win, or even come close. Libertarians running as the only opponent to a D or an R in Texas usually get 10-20% of the vote. In a heavily Republican district with plenty of publicity, I would see Smither around 25-30%. It would be sweet if he wins, though, even if he's not the ideal LP candidate. (His support of the 30% national sales tax is troubling, but it's probably a non-starter anyway.) A write-in candidate will not win, or even come close. Libertarians running as the only opponent to a D or an R in Texas usually get 10-20% of the vote. In a heavily Republican district with plenty of publicity, I would see Smither around 25-30%. It would be sweet if he wins, though, even if he’s not the ideal LP candidate. (His support of the 30% national sales tax is troubling, but it’s probably a non-starter anyway.)

]]> by: George Whitfield http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64372 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 03:03:43 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64372 Austin, I have supported both Smither and Rex Bell and the LP legislative candidates in Vermont (Hardy Machia and others). Wherever we have a good opportunity we should take advantage of it. Although we should focus on winnable races at the lower level, we shouldn't ignore the Congressional level completely. We should try different levels at the same time. We will do well. Austin, I have supported both Smither and Rex Bell and the LP legislative candidates in Vermont (Hardy Machia and others). Wherever we have a good opportunity we should take advantage of it. Although we should focus on winnable races at the lower level, we shouldn’t ignore the Congressional level completely. We should try different levels at the same time. We will do well.

]]> by: Aaron http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64364 Thu, 02 Nov 2006 02:11:31 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64364 The LP should continue to focus on the Smither race. I don't agree with Austin's comments. Folks are NOT going to write in hyphen-lady's name UNLESS they have some formal tie to either her or the GOP. Everyone else will be left with TWO choices. I think Smither will do VERY well. The LP should continue to focus on the Smither race. I don’t agree with Austin’s comments. Folks are NOT going to write in hyphen-lady’s name UNLESS they have some formal tie to either her or the GOP. Everyone else will be left with TWO choices. I think Smither will do VERY well.

]]> by: Austin Cassidy http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64310 Wed, 01 Nov 2006 22:06:46 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64310 Supportive, sure. And I'm not attacking Smither... I think he's an above average paper candidate that fell into an awesome opportunity to earn some press and he's gone for it. Good for them. If a state legislative candidate, like Rex Bell in Indiana or one of the ones in New Hampshire or Vermont, loses their race by 2% of the vote... the question "what more could have been done?" will be asked. If the party's resources and attention is tied up in a hopeless Congressional race, state house seats might be left behind. My statements have just been hitting a few points... 1) Zogby hasn't been unfriendly to Libertarians in the past, they've been quite fair. 2) Even if this 4% is actually 14%, that's not within range to win. 3) National LPHQ seems to be blasting staff and cash at this race, which probably seemed like a good idea a few weeks ago. But if it's not working, my own feeling is that there are races which can be won with a little extra boost. Stephen Gordon and Shane Cory are some of the sharpest folks I've ever seen leading the party, so I trust their judgement. I'm not trying to be critical, just sharing my take on the situation. Supportive, sure. And I’m not attacking Smither… I think he’s an above average paper candidate that fell into an awesome opportunity to earn some press and he’s gone for it. Good for them.

If a state legislative candidate, like Rex Bell in Indiana or one of the ones in New Hampshire or Vermont, loses their race by 2% of the vote… the question “what more could have been done?” will be asked. If the party’s resources and attention is tied up in a hopeless Congressional race, state house seats might be left behind.

My statements have just been hitting a few points…

1) Zogby hasn’t been unfriendly to Libertarians in the past, they’ve been quite fair.

2) Even if this 4% is actually 14%, that’s not within range to win.

3) National LPHQ seems to be blasting staff and cash at this race, which probably seemed like a good idea a few weeks ago. But if it’s not working, my own feeling is that there are races which can be won with a little extra boost.

Stephen Gordon and Shane Cory are some of the sharpest folks I’ve ever seen leading the party, so I trust their judgement. I’m not trying to be critical, just sharing my take on the situation.

]]> by: NewFederalist http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64295 Wed, 01 Nov 2006 21:15:08 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64295 Is it any real surprise that Fox would run a story that is pro-Republican and unfriendly to Libertarians? While I am certain that Smither won't come close to winning I just am not buying these low numbers. Nice smack down, Austin! I thought this website was supposed to be supportive of the"other guys"! Is it any real surprise that Fox would run a story that is pro-Republican and unfriendly to Libertarians? While I am certain that Smither won’t come close to winning I just am not buying these low numbers. Nice smack down, Austin! I thought this website was supposed to be supportive of the”other guys”!

]]> by: Austin Cassidy http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64292 Wed, 01 Nov 2006 21:09:30 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64292 Well, Zogby hasn't been a terrible pollster in the past. It's not like that "Southern Research" thing or whatever which was just advertising for the Republican. As I said in the item above, Smither can get to 10% with his eyes closed at this point... but that's not going to win it. Neither is 20%... which is where I think he might be able to get to with all this party support. However, on election night would your rather see "Smither tops 20% in TX-22 for a close third place finish" or "Smith finishes third with 12% of the vote in Texas, Libertarian Legislators elected in Vermont and Indiana"? I'd go for the second headline. These last minute resources could put viable candidates over the top. A win anywhere is better than a good showing in any race, unless that race is statewide or Presidential. This sideshow Congressional seat isn't. And if Smither beats the Republican the media will dismiss it as "she couldn't even get past a Libertarian" - but if she beats Smither, then that looks even worse for the LP. A strong showing will be discounted because of the weird circumstances of the race. The only "win" here is an outright win... and that's just not gonna happen. Well, Zogby hasn’t been a terrible pollster in the past. It’s not like that “Southern Research” thing or whatever which was just advertising for the Republican. As I said in the item above, Smither can get to 10% with his eyes closed at this point… but that’s not going to win it. Neither is 20%... which is where I think he might be able to get to with all this party support. However, on election night would your rather see “Smither tops 20% in TX-22 for a close third place finish” or “Smith finishes third with 12% of the vote in Texas, Libertarian Legislators elected in Vermont and Indiana”? I’d go for the second headline.

These last minute resources could put viable candidates over the top. A win anywhere is better than a good showing in any race, unless that race is statewide or Presidential. This sideshow Congressional seat isn’t.

And if Smither beats the Republican the media will dismiss it as “she couldn’t even get past a Libertarian” – but if she beats Smither, then that looks even worse for the LP. A strong showing will be discounted because of the weird circumstances of the race. The only “win” here is an outright win… and that’s just not gonna happen.

]]> by: Carol http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64265 Wed, 01 Nov 2006 19:26:21 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64265 Nick Lampson hasn't really tried to win in District 22. A local radio station had Gibbs on their show and asked Lampson if he would like to join them, and his peeps told them that "he did not need it." Kind of arrogant if you ask me. Nick Lampson hasn’t really tried to win in District 22. A local radio station had Gibbs on their show and asked Lampson if he would like to join them, and his peeps told them that “he did not need it.” Kind of arrogant if you ask me.

]]> by: Timothy West http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64255 Wed, 01 Nov 2006 18:59:22 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64255 Dude, the poll is undefendable. I'm aware of this, but he just burned his bridge with me. Thats no a poll, it's a paid advert for hypen lady. Dude,

the poll is undefendable. I’m aware of this, but he just burned his bridge with me. Thats no a poll, it’s a paid advert for hypen lady.

]]> by: Kris Overstreet http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64154 Wed, 01 Nov 2006 15:26:41 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2006/10/31/smither-not-a-major-factor-in-tx-22/#comment-64154 Oh, and Tim? Zogby's as close as the Libertarian Party has in the polling game to a friend. The other pollsters routinely ignore us; he routinely includes us, us and most of the other third parties. His polls have also been among the most accurate at predicting outcomes since before 2000... Oh, and Tim? Zogby’s as close as the Libertarian Party has in the polling game to a friend. The other pollsters routinely ignore us; he routinely includes us, us and most of the other third parties.

His polls have also been among the most accurate at predicting outcomes since before 2000…

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