And the man behind door number three is…
Well, as Austin let everyone know, I’m proud to have been made the third contributor here at Third Party Watch.
Obviously, I’ll be covering mostly Libertarian events, and probably hitting on some Georgia issues for obvious reasons.
For those of you who don’t know me, I’ve been involved in the Libertarian Party for a little over 10 years now. I’ve been on the Libertarian National Committee, I’ve been a county chair in both Georgia and Tennessee and a state officer in Georgia and Tennessee. I currently serve as the Executive Director for the Libertarian Party of Georgia and have been in that position now for just about a full year.
In 2004, I was one of only three people who knew that Michael Badnarik was going to win the LP nomination before the debate happened… I really wish I would have laid some money on the line with bets on that one, I could have retired early.
I’m not a Purist and I’m not a Reformer, I’m just a Libertarian. If you’re 51% Libertarian than you’re good enough for me.
Thanks to Austin for letting me join the Third Party Watch team.
December 8th, 2006 at 1:00 pm
Congrats and welcome Trevor!
December 8th, 2006 at 3:37 pm
Congrats Trevor. Looking forward to reading your posts.
December 8th, 2006 at 4:44 pm
likewise.
December 8th, 2006 at 7:03 pm
Me number-whatever.
BTW I’ve seen claims by Doug Craig that he is the current ExcDir in Georgia.
Are you and he the same person, is he misstating the facts, or did I misunderstand?
December 8th, 2006 at 7:34 pm
Paulie,
You probably mis-read. Doug Craig is a member of our Executive Committee and has been serving as our Political Director.
While the only full time staff we have is the Executive Director, and we have a part time Office Manager, we do have other volunteers who are specifically working on one area or another.
Doug Craig, as Political Director, is sort of our media attack dog. Doug doesn’t mind calling and calling and calling some more… so Doug gets us media coverage by making sure they know we’re here. We also have Amanda Millay, who serves as our Publications Director and does a marvelous job producing our quarterly newspaper, the Georgia Libertarian. There’s Mark Augustyn who is our Campus Coordinator who has taken us from 1 campus group to 3 active campus groups and 3 other start up campus groups. We also had an intern this semester, and plan to have 2-3 interns next semester, as the result of Mark’s hard work. There’s David Shock who has taken on the role of Affiliate Coordinator and has set up one affiliate himself and has now got four more counties rolling with other members of the committee serving as their Affiliate Coordinators, etc…
December 8th, 2006 at 9:04 pm
“I’m not a Purist and I’m not a Reformer, I’m just a Libertarian. If you’re 51% Libertarian than you’re good enough for me.”
I can see why the Georgia LP is picking up support. We need more of this kind of attitude.
December 8th, 2006 at 10:54 pm
Paulie I said I was the Political Director.Trevor is the Ex-Director In georgia that is a paid postion.Trevor does this full time . I am a volunteer.
I just work on campaigns, Trevor keeps the WHOLE ship moving.
Paulie I am glad to see you guys are doing Great with the Kubby Campaign. I wish we could get some media coverage by the press for the Libertarian race for the nomonation.
December 8th, 2006 at 11:13 pm
Trevor,
You’re never going to let me live down my prediction that Michael would come in a “respectable third,” are you? I’m assuming the other two people you allude to were Michael himself, and Jon Airheart.
Glad to see you at TPW!
Regards,
Thomas L. Knapp
December 8th, 2006 at 11:23 pm
Doug – I’m supposed to be getting paid? Why didn’t anyone ever tell me?
Paulie – I am the full time employee, we also have an Office Manager who works part time as well as some wonderful volunteers that tackle one specific area. Doug covers the political side, we have a Publications Director and a Campus Coordinator as well… all of which help me to not have to spend as much time on those areas.
Tom – Respectable third my rear!
Jon, Michael and I knew that Badnarik would be the nominee… I tried to tell everyone, but ya just wouldn’t listen.
Thanks for the welcome, guys… I hope you still like me in a couple of weeks.
December 9th, 2006 at 2:28 am
And sorry about the double response there, Paulie… for some reason my comments were caught in the spam filter… what a nice welcome that was, huh?
December 9th, 2006 at 1:18 pm
Welcome aboard, Trevor! (sorry about the spam filter…
)
December 9th, 2006 at 2:48 pm
Phillies For President
(sorry, couldn’t resist after I seen the Kubby reference above)
December 9th, 2006 at 3:28 pm
Jason Gatties
Phillies For President
Maybe we can consider him more seriously when he gets 10,000 web hits per day, as Kubby does. Or when he is covered by the major media outlets, as Kubby has been. Or when he speaks to a crowd of 50,000 at a time, as Kubby did when he announced for President. Or when he travels to various states on behalf of his campaign, as Kubby is already doing.
Or how about clearing up what he means by his Eurocentric statement on immigration on his issues page? Since Phillies comments on ThirdPartyWatch with some regularity and this has been asked here (and by myself and others previously on Hammer of Truth, where he also posts)
perhaps he can explain what he meant in some more detail?
Doug and Trevor:
Thanks for clearing up the confusion about the Georgia Party. Sounds like y’all have a real good organization and keep up the good work.
Now to clear up some confusion myself. I have
at least as as yetno formal connection to the Kubby campaign. They said they would consider contracting with me in the future, and in the meantime would appreciate my help as a volunteer. So I’m re-posting Kubby announcements in a variety of fora entirely of my own initiative.I am not a spokesman for the campaign, and am not authorized to speak for or make any statements on behalf of Steve Kubby. All I’m doing is re-posting stuff posted on Kubby’s webpage and blog, and making my own comments as a private individual.
I believe Tom Knapp does have a formal position with the campaign, although the last time I talked to him about it he was still volunteering as well, so any questions should be more properly addressed to him.
One thing I would suggest is Phillies and Kubby start debating each other at state LP conventions. For that matter, if any of the other candidates for the nomination make the trip, perhaps they could be included as well.
You may be able to get at least a small amount of press coverage out of that.
December 9th, 2006 at 3:29 pm
Wow, this software here must be psychic or something. It crossed out “at least as yet” all on it’s own…
December 9th, 2006 at 3:31 pm
Okay Trevor, a hearty and warm welcome. Now how about giving us a prediction for the LP Prez nod for 2008.
Will it be a Losertarian like George Phillies, Jacob Hornberger, Carol Moore, Ernie Hancock, Steve Kubby or Badnarik again, or will the Nominee be a “Winnertarian” like Larry Elder, Ed Thompson, Jesse Ventura, Dennis Miller, Sheriff Bill Masters, Sarah Chambers, Wayne Root, Greg Raymer, Judge Robert Gray, or someone else of that caliber?
I’m hoping the latter. But if it’s the former, no doubt tons of libertarian Republicans will once again bolt and support the GOP nominee, even if we have to hold our noses.
Eric at www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
December 9th, 2006 at 3:40 pm
Hey Eric…this one’s for you….
(ns)GOP Is (finally) Losing Its Libertarian Voters
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=18388
by David Boaz and David Kirby
Posted Dec 08, 2006
Libertarian Party candidates may have cost Senators Jim Talent
(R.-Mo.) and Conrad Burns (R.-Mont.) their seats, tipping the Senate
to Democratic control.
In Montana, the Libertarian candidate got more than 10,000 votes, or
3%, while Democrat Jon Tester edged Burns by fewer than 3,000 votes.
In Missouri, Claire McCaskill defeated Talent by 41,000 votes, a bit
less than the 47,000 Libertarian votes.
This isn’t the first time Republicans have had to worry about losing
votes to Libertarian Party candidates. Senators Harry Reid (Nev.),
Maria Cantwell (Wash.), and Tim Johnson (S.D.) all won races in which
Libertarian candidates got more votes than their winning margin.
But a narrow focus on the Libertarian Party significantly
underestimates the role libertarian voters played in 2006. Most voters
who hold libertarian views don’t vote for the Libertarian Party.
Libertarian voters likely cost Republicans the House and the
Senate—also dealing blows to Republican candidates in Arizona,
Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
In our study, “The Libertarian Vote,” we analyzed 16 years of polling
data and found that libertarians constituted 13% of the electorate in
2004. Because libertarians are better educated and more likely to
vote, they were 15% of actual voters.
Libertarians are broadly defined as people who favor less government
in both economic and personal issues. They might be summed up as
“fiscally conservative, socially liberal” voters.
In the past, our research shows, most libertarians voted
Republican—72% for George W. Bush in 2000, for instance, with only 20
percent for Al Gore, and 70% for Republican congressional candidates
in 2002. But in 2004, presumably turned off by war, wiretapping, and
welfare-state spending sprees, they shifted sharply toward the
Democrats. John F. Kerry got 38% of the libertarian vote. That was a
dramatic swing that Republican strategists should have noticed. But
somehow the libertarian vote has remained hidden in plain sight.
This year we commissioned a nationwide post-election survey of 1013
voters from Zogby International. We again found that 15 percent of the
voters held libertarian views. We also found a further swing of
libertarians away from Republican candidates. In 2006, libertarians
voted 59% to 36% for Republican congressional candidates—a 24-point
swing from the 2002 mid-term election. To put this in perspective,
front-page stories since the election have reported the dramatic
7-point shift of white conservative evangelicals away from the
Republicans. The libertarian vote is about the same size as the
religious right vote measured in exit polls, and it is subject to
swings more than three times as large.
Based on the turnout in 2004, Bush’s margin over Kerry dropped by 4.8
million votes among libertarians. Had he held his libertarian
supporters, he would have won a smashing reelection rather than
squeaking by in Ohio.
President Bush and the congressional Republicans left no libertarian
button unpushed in the past six years: soaring spending, expansion of
entitlements, federalization of education, cracking down on state
medical marijuana initiatives, Sarbanes-Oxley, gay marriage bans, stem
cell research restrictions, wiretapping, incarcerating U.S. citizens
without a lawyer, unprecedented executive powers, and of course an
unnecessary and apparently futile war. The striking thing may be that
after all that, Democrats still looked worse to a majority of
libertarians.
Because libertarians tend to be younger and better educated than the
average voter, they’re not going away. They’re an appealing target for
Democrats, but they are essential to future Republican successes.
Republicans can win the South without libertarians. But this was the
year that New Hampshire and the Mountain West turned purple if not
blue, and libertarians played a big role there. New Hampshire may be
the most libertarian state in the country; this year both the state’s
Republican congressmen lost.
Meanwhile, in the Goldwateresque, “leave us alone” Mountain West,
Republicans not only lost the Montana Senate seat; they also lost the
governorship of Colorado, two House seats in Arizona, and one in
Colorado. They had close calls in the Arizona Senate race and House
races in Idaho, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Dick Cheney’s
Wyoming. In libertarian Nevada, the Republican candidate for governor
won less than a majority against a Democrat who promised to keep the
government out of guns, abortion, and gay marriage. Arizona also
became the first state to vote down a state constitutional amendment
to define marriage as between one man and one woman.
Presidential candidates might note that even in Iowa libertarians
helped vote out a Republican congressman who championed the Internet
gambling ban.
If Republicans can’t win New Hampshire and the Mountain West, they
can’t win a national majority. And they can’t win those states without
libertarian votes. They’re going to need to stop scaring libertarian,
centrist, and independent voters with their social-conservative
obsessions and become once again the party of fiscal responsibility.
....(paul: once again? when were they ever?)....
In a Newsweek poll just before the election, 47% of respondents said
they trusted the Democrats more on “federal spending and the deficit,”
compared to just 31% who trusted the Republicans. That’s not Ronald
Reagan’s Republican Party.
One more bit from our post-election Zogby poll: We asked voters if
they considered themselves “fiscally conservative and socially
liberal.” A whopping 59% said they did. When we added to the question
“also known as libertarian,” 44% still claimed that description.
That’s too many voters for any party to ignore.
Rep. Barbara Cubin (R.-Wyo.) told her Libertarian challenger after a
debate, “If you weren’t sitting in that [wheel]chair, I’d slap you.”
It took 10 days to certify her re-election, perhaps because that
Libertarian took more than 7,000 votes. A better strategy for her and
other Republicans would be to try to woo libertarians back.
December 9th, 2006 at 3:47 pm
Eric, what is your evidence that Kubby is a “losertarian”?
Also, your thesis is completely incorrect here:
“no doubt tons of libertarian Republicans will once again bolt and support the GOP nominee,”
It looks like libertarian vote is deserting the nsGOP in droves, finally (belatedly) waking up to the reality of Red State Fascism.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/red-state-fascism.html
If this trend continues – and why wouldn’t it? – By 2008 we may have to worry about more (quasi-)libertarians voting for the Donkey Show candidate rather than a Libertarian, instead of the old fashioned notion that they must choose between the LP and nsGOP.
It seems that the small-l libertarian vote may be coming home to the Party of Jefferson.
Too bad that it is now actually the party of Hillary Clinton.
I wonder if a significant portion of these small l’s will finally vote 3rd party if the choices are two triple-bad (warmonger, big spender, social meddler) demipublicans like Hillary and McCain or Hillary and Giuliani?
December 9th, 2006 at 3:50 pm
Had a followup. Looks like it got filtered, in case an admin wants to pull it out of there.
December 9th, 2006 at 4:12 pm
I don’t have a perdiction on the 08 race yet, because I haven’t decided who I want to support and don’t think I will for quite some time.
In Georgia we have elections in 2007 that we have to get ready for, and at our state convention this year we’ll be focusing on winning those elections… in 2008 we’ll worry about who’s going to run for President.
Sometime today, or maybe tomorrow, or sometime soon, I’m going to make a seperate post about the LP’s 2008 nod and you guys can go and feast on each other there.
And Eric… if you want a “winnertarian” to win the nomination… they actually have to run for it like George, Steve, Christine and the others… the person who gets nominated gets the nomination because they seek it… if those people you named as “winnertarians” don’t seek the nomination, than I can 100% guarantee you, they won’t win it.
December 9th, 2006 at 5:53 pm
It’s due to the insane amount of SPAM that’s directed at these boards. Posts with links in them sometimes get caught… particularly if some spammer used an email address similar to yours, etc.
I plucked it out for ya.
Also, adding a dash in front of and behind something creates the line through it.
Like this.If you want to use dashes, just use a space as well. – Like this. -
December 9th, 2006 at 5:54 pm
kthx
December 9th, 2006 at 6:51 pm
When will I begin travelling to other states in support of my nomination? Oh, last June, rather before Mr. Kubby declared. I crossed the continent to do so.
For the text of my August speech to the Merrimac Valley Libertarians, see http://phillies2008.com/phillies_speech_to_merrimac_valley_porcupines .
(You can also hear me read the prepared draft of the speech.)
When will I start debating other Presidential candidates? I started several months ago. With a declared Democratic candidate.
For the video of my presentation to the New Hampshire Libertarian Party State Convention (the other presenter was the Democrat) see
http://phillies2008.com/phillies_speaks_at_lpnh_state_convention
December 9th, 2006 at 7:05 pm
OK, so you’ve been to New Hampshire with your campaign. Where else? And where all have you made plans to go with it?
And what about that issue of the statement about “Europe now being free, so we don’t need any more immigrants” (paraphrased from your webpage) that Paulie keeps bringing up?
What’s the biggest crowd you’ve talked to? How much non-libertarian press coverage have you had?
Who was the Democrat you debated? Did you actually debate, or did you both just address the NH LP convention separately?
Do you have any plans to debate Kubby?
Which LP state conventions will you be attending?
December 9th, 2006 at 8:00 pm
Welcome Austin. You are one of my favorite Libertarian activists and Third Party Watch one of my favorite websites so this is a happy combination for me. I look forward to the 2007 elections in Georgia and helping out where I can.
December 9th, 2006 at 8:01 pm
Welcome TREVOR. I am sorry for the mistake on the name. I really should get a proofreader better than myself!
December 9th, 2006 at 9:33 pm
Paulie,
As George Phillies mentions, he has indeed already campaigned outside of Massachusetts. I expect we’ll see both Kubby and Phillies at various LP state conventions in 2007 and 2008.
Also, both Kubby and Phillies are trying to keep internal LP events from being their campaigns’ sole focal point. Phillies has been “beta-testing” commercials over the Internet, with a view toward airing them in general media markets on television. Kubby went to Colorado to campaign for a ballot issue.
I’ve laid out my own reasons for supporting Kubby in preference to Phillies, but lack of real campaign skills or effort on Phillies’ part isn’t one of them. We are overtaking Phillies in terms of campaign depth (as opposed to initial preference of prospective delegates, where I believe we started out ahead anyway), but that’s because we’re working at it, not because he’s a slouch.
I expect you’ll see George’s campaign starting to roll out its state-based volunteer operations in the next few days. You’ll also see Kubby doing so—we’ve created 50 state Internet discussion lists, appointed (I think) seven state coordinators so far, etc. The fact that George is at that point shows he’s been working. The fact that Kubby is at that point at the same time, even though he declared several months after George, means to me that we’re moving faster … and that we don’t have time for a break.
Regards,
Tom Knapp
December 9th, 2006 at 10:16 pm
I’m tired of articles being written that the only reason the mainstream candidate lost was because a third party candidate TOOK votes from them. I for one would’ver never voted for Talent or McCaskill and there are many here in MO with that opinion. Talent would’ve lost even if Gilmour and Lewis wasn’t in the race because many of us free thinking individuals can’t swallow the “lessor of the two evil” arguments.
With articles like that continuing to pop up we will remain on the back burner as an election spoiler instead of an election threat. Maybe some news media organization should ask these third party voters whom they would’ve voted for if there wasn’t a third party candidate. Personally if it wasn’t for the any one but republican and democrat movement I wouldn’t be voting at all since it makes no difference whether you put in socialism right or socialism left.
December 9th, 2006 at 11:51 pm
Tom,
Most of the articles I’m seeing on the “spoiler” phenomenon make it clear that they’re either a) assuming or b) basing on polling data an overt assumption as to where third party votes would have “gone” if the candidate they were cast for had not been on the ballot.
There is indeed a bloc of voters who will simply not vote for a D or R, even if there’s not a Libertarian candidate to vote for. There are also blocs of voters who will. It would be interesting to see more, and more detailed, information on how that breaks out in any particular case.
As for myself, I was glad to be able to vote for Frank Gilmour, but if he hadn’t been on the ballot, this was a case where I would have voted anyway (against Jim Talent).
The “spoiler” phenomenon should be promoted, not hidden or denied. If we can learn how to consistently and provably cost the other parties elections, that gives them an incentive to try to earn the votes that are going to us, by campaigning on, and implementing, libertarian public policy. I’d rather win elections outright, but I’ll take what I can get.
Regards,
Tom Knapp
December 10th, 2006 at 4:38 pm
When will I begin travelling to other states in support of my nomination? Oh, last June, rather before Mr. Kubby declared. To the West coast, as it happens.
December 11th, 2006 at 6:44 pm
Pretty pressed for time right now but….
You’ll also see Kubby doing so—we’ve created 50 state Internet discussion lists, appointed (I think) seven state coordinators so far, etc.
Where is all this? I haven’t seen it on Kubby.com.
Let me know what I can do to help put all this together. I’m sure you could use some help in all this?
December 13th, 2006 at 1:03 am
Evidence Steve Kubby is a Loser.
He has never even been elected dog catcher.
Over 80 Libertarian Party members serve in public office in the State of California, both appointed and elected. Kubby ain’t one of them.
Any one of those 80 LPers would be more qualified to run than Kubby. Hell, I’d even take one of the Planning Board Commission members, or one of the County Soil Tester or Cemetary Board members over someone like Kubby who thinks he can all of a sudden run for the highest office in the land, and not have to work his way up for it.
It’s an absolute insult to the American voter, and a slap in the face to all the Libertarian Party members nationwide who do hold public office, and worked their asses off to get there.
Kubby (and Phillies) should be ashamed.
December 13th, 2006 at 5:42 pm
Eric, what are you elected to? I recall you running for the VP nomination.