Actually, I don’t think that “wholesale defections to the Ron Paul camp” hurt Kubby for the nomination. If Ron Paul wins the GOP nomination, that may hit the LP hard in the general election, of course, but I think that Paul’s GOP candidacy makes it EASIER for Kubby to win the nomination. Here’s why:

1) Those LP members who tend to think that the LP is a sort of “shadow Republican Party” that embodies “what the Republicans are SUPPOSED to stand for” might be inclined to support Root for the LP’s nomination … if they weren’t fleeing the LP for Paul in this election cycle. But they are.

2) Those LP members who agree with Paul, and disagree with Kubby, on immigration might be inclined to support Phillies for the LP’s nomination … if they weren’t fleeing the LP for Paul in this election cycle. But they are.

I’m not saying that all LP members who are supporting Paul instead of the LP fall into those two classes. But it’s reasonable to assume that those two classes are disproportionatey representative of LP members supporting Paul and walking away from the LP right now. That leaves an LP whose “sticking with my party” members are likewise proportionately more enamored of Kubby than of Root or Phillies than they otherwise would have been. How big is the skew? I don’t know. But it’s there.

On the down side, there’s the possibility of:

1) Paul losing the GOP nomination and seeking the LP nomination. There’s not much reason to doubt that if he did so, he’d be the nominee.

2) Paul losing the GOP and accepting the CP nomination. If that happens, there could be a strong “nominate NOTA and suspend the rules to allow the convention and the LP’s state affiliates to endorse Paul” effort in the LP. I would consider that outcome disastrous for the LP, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen.

3) Paul winning the GOP nomination and the same NOTA/endorse thing as in (2).

I agree that right now, Kubby would beat Root like a red-headed stepchild in a nomination vote. And I think that Root has a much tougher row to hoe than he thinks he does to close that gap. But I’m not going to make the mistake of writing him—or the other three “real candidates”—off. I’d rather get them into the debate ring with Kubby as often as possible. The more he mauls them in these early rounds, the less likely they are to go the distance to Denver and the worse shape they’ll be in if they do.

Since (1) and (2) have already chosen their political parties, and (3) turns away from anyone who make abortion a cornerstone of their campaign, I’ve advocated taking the LP position on abortion from lukewarm pro-abortion to total silence, leaving it to the candidates to follow their own conscience.”

I agree with this!

(1) “Abortion is a fundamental right! Anyone who says otherwise wants to enslave women and keep them barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen!”

(2) “Abortion is murder! Anyone who says otherwise has the blood of millions of cute adorable Jesus-loving little babies on their hands!”

(3) “For God’s sake SHUT UP ABOUT ABORTION ALREADY!”

Since (1) and (2) have already chosen their political parties, and (3) turns away from anyone who make abortion a cornerstone of their campaign, I’ve advocated taking the LP position on abortion from lukewarm pro-abortion to total silence, leaving it to the candidates to follow their own conscience. As even the Constitutional Theocrats have found, abortion is a divisive and destructive issue- one which just doesn’t help anyone on the national level.

It wasn’t intended to be a broadside. You just struck a theme that I wanted to discuss, that’s all. I don’t believe I even criticized your abortion position—I just wanted to explain why it doesn’t steal a march on the CP, that’s all.

I agree with you that Paul’s association with the CP is a liability, for that and other reasons.

Matt,

I’m glad SOMEONE is confident that Kubby has the nomination sewn up! I’m less optimistic, but then it’s my job to be. If the convention was held tomorrow, I think Kubby would be nominated on the first or second ballot[1], but we still haven’t seen whether or not Root can crank up a medicine show to sell himself, and there’s plenty of time for more candidates to enter the race.

Regards,
Tom Knapp

[1] First ballot prediction if the LP’s presidential nomination delegate vote was held today: Kubby 45-55%; Root, 15-20%; Phillies, 10-15%; Smith, less than 10%; all others, 1-5 votes. Second ballot, if necessary: Kubby, 50-60%; Root, 15-25%; Phillies, less than 10%; Smith, less than 5%; all others, same 1-5 diehard votes.

You write:

“This is Guilani’s position also & takes an issue from the CP.”

Actually, no, it doesn’t.

Here’s the thing about abortion:

Yes, it can swing an election, IF the candidate appealing to single-issue abortion voters is already at 48% and clawing for those last few votes.

What it can’t do is take a party/candidate who’s in single digits and put that party or candidate over the top.

There are five categories of “abortion voters”—
1) Single issue pro-lifers who would vote for Attila the Hun if he promised them a Human Life Amendment and the execution of any Supreme Court justice who voted to uphold Roe v. Wade.

2) Pro-lifers who certainly have that issue on their agenda and, all candidates being otherwise equal, would vote for the pro-life candidate … but who may place a higher priority on another issue, or on an overall set of issues.

3) Voters who may lean pro-life or pro-choice, but just don’t commit their vote on the basis of the issue—pretty much EVERY issue is more important to them than abortion.

4) Pro-choicers who certainly have that issue on their agenda and, all candidates being otherwise equal, would vote for the pro-choice candidate … but who may place a higher priority on another issue, or on an overall set of issues.

5) Single issue pro-choicers who would vote for Agusto Pinochet if he promised to to protect an absolute right to access to abortion for anyone and everyone, at public expense, and to execute any Supreme Court justice who hasn’t proven his or her dedication to the issue by having personally either had or performed a slash-n-vac on the courthouse steps at noon.

Categories 1 and 5 are never going to be the foundation of a successful political party. Those two categories represent low single-digit percentages of voters, and they severely alienate the voters in categories 2, 3 and 4. That’s why the “major party” candidates do their damnedest to avoid being pigeonholed in categories 1 and 5, and try to pigeonhole their opponents into those categories.

You can’t take the issue away from the Constitution Party, because they represent the few hundred thousand voters in Category 1. Those voters aren’t looking for policy proposals to reduce the incidence of abortion or to mitigate its “necessity”—because they don’t believe that abortion is ever necessary or justifiable, or that cutting the number of abortions from 10 to 5 is a worthy goal . They’re looking for candidates who will promise to end it, 100%, pronto, whatever it takes.

The GOP would like to have those few hundred thousand voters in Category 1, but it’s not willing to give up the millions of voters in Categories 2 and 3 to get them.

The Democrats have been more successful in currying the favor of Category 5 voters without alienating Categories 4 and 3, because they’re slicker about it. They quack about making abortion “safe, legal and rare,” while resisting any policy proposal that’s not acceptable to the Category 5 voters. They deliver the policy without the rhetoric. The Category 1 voters, for whatever reason, demand both from the GOP, have a greater tendency to leave the reservation if they don’t GET both, and are more discriminating about looking at whether record and rhetoric match when a Republican starts throwing around his pro-life credentials.

The point is insurgency campaigns can win party nominations. It’s happened before and it can happen again. Yes. Ron Paul bid is longshot but there is a chance it can happen through two things: 1). Support for the Iraq war collapses in the GOP by the fall; 2). Paul is able to win all the early state contests and build up enough momentum to carry him through Super Tuesday. I think its chance worth taking and non-major party activists can provide a lot of help in this endavor and claim a share of Ron Paul’s success if it happens. And besides, if you want to talk about longshots, just look at a non-major party’s chance of winning the White House.

Yet some persist in the belief that someday it can happen. I don’t believe the LP, CP or the Greens are a waste of time if they are structured right and proper to affect change on the local level where their candidiates can win elections. This is what I’ve been trying preach to non-major party activists through my book Beating the Powers that Be and by posting here. Kris is right that politics is not about ideas alone. Its about stacking together coaltions of different groups of voters together for a winning majority which is also why I’ve urged non-major parties not to focus so much on ideology and more on finding groups of likeminded voters that will support them. The Veterans Coalition of the Constitution Party is an example of this.

But politics isn’t just about the lust for power either. Voters tend to reject canddidates who have no rational for public office other than wanting the job. Ideas are the fuel for a camapign. Do you want to be the candidate like Robert Redford in the movie “The Candidate” after winning an election and saying “Now what?” You want to see what a party looks like that has no ideas and just clings on to power for its own sake, look at the GOP today. Not pretty is it?

If any member of the LP, CP or the Greens does not have any idea of translating their ideas into policy and has no concept what a community under LP or CP rule would look like, they should not be running for dog catcher, let alone the county commission. You can make change happen from the bottom up. The Greens have proven this. Look at all the anti-smoking bans popping up, where do you think those came from? Look at the homosexual-marriage proposals or what about restrictions against illegal immigrants in towns like Hazelton, PA or states that are now opposing REAL ID or No Child Left Behind. None of this has happened by accident.

As I said, if the LP, CP or the Greens want to run candidates for high office that’s fine so long as people are realistic at what such candidates can accomplish 1). ballot access for future elections, 2). articulation of party platform fo voters to shape the debate, 3). recruting converts to become new party activists and contributors and 4). Potentially screwing one of the major parties and showing influence.

Mayor Bloomberg will find out rudely what we already know, this is a two-party system like it or not. But there are ways to be effective within that system and beat the powers that be at their own game. You can either learn how to do so or bang your head into the wall again. Its your choice.

June 21st, 2007 at 1:43 am
Folks,
There is no way Ron Paul or Tancredo or Duncan Hunter will ever win the Republican nomination. Why? The “CFR” (Council on Foreign Relations)
back-room power elites, in the smoke-filled rooms control the ‘leadership’ of BOTH monopoly , corrupt republican & democrat parties. They will make darn sure whomever is nominated it will be a CFR globalist-friendly
politician that wins the nomination.”

You brought up a valid point, but I just want to point out that the CFR crowd is not omnipitent. The reason that they’ve gotten their way for so long is because there hasn’t been enough organized opposition against them. Countering their actions is a matter of enough good people getting off of their asses and getting involved. I can’t recall who said it off hand, but there’s a saying that goes, “Tyranny is always better organized than liberty.” (or something like that). Well, it is past time for liberty to get better organized.

-Larry Breazeale, Msgt. (ret.) USAFR,
Vice Chairman of the National Veterans
Coalition of the CONSTITUTION party,
www.nvets.org

Oh yes, there is that party building aspect as well. You can do that as well! Hold Ron Paul meetups; make friends and take names. If Paul loses the nomination, you have a bunch of names useful for party building. DUH! SUPPORTING RON PAUL NOW IS THE BEST WAY TO BUILD YOUR LOCAL LP OR CP

In my state, the dumarchists are having a hissy fit over this strategy. This may result in my county affiliate becoming disaffiliated. Fine by me. If the LP leadership is this clueless and legalistic, then let the ship sink sooner rather than later.

(Speaking for myself only. Not sure what the others will opt for.)

No, it is not “literally impossible” for Paul to get the GOP nod. If he won a sufficient number of delegate-binding primaries, he could get past the “super-delegate” barricade. And if he looked like he was set to do that, the barricade would fall down anyway, since many of the “super-delegates” are the kind of people who want to be thought of kindly when it comes time to hand out cabinet posts and other appointments.

It’s pretty damn CLOSE to impossible for him to be nominated, though, even if he isn’t Gary Harted in one way or another.

Everyone will think I’m crazy, but right now I think the GOP nod will go to McCain.

June 20th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
This argument is getting old.

Ron Paul is running in the GOP primary. Good for Ron Paul! There’s nothing wrong with backing a horse in the GOP race. There’s nothing wrong with supporting the candidate who is CLOSEST to your ideals. There’s nothing wrong with supporting the candidate who best advocates limited government and non-intervention, etc. Why are you people so covetous of others’ money? If they want to give to Ron Paul and not to you (Phillies) then too bad. Be a better candidate and they would give to you. You don’t control their money, as much as you might want to. Who are you, Hillary?”

I agree with GE here.

“The ‘wasted dollars’ argument is as bad as the ‘wasted vote.’ Are people who give $100 to Ron Paul REALLY not going to have another $100 to give to Kubby/Phillies? If so, they shouldn’t be giving Ron Paul any money either.”

I agree with GE again!

“But here’s the thing: It is literally impossible for Ron Paul to get the GOP nod. Please realize this and don’t entertain any other fantasies. It is more likely that Steve Kubby will be elected PRESIDENT than Ron Paul will win the GOP nomination. The delegate system will not allow it. And even if there were a delegate coup (impossible, but…), then the GOP would run an independent against Paul and would do everything they could to destroy him.”

I wouldn’t say that it would be impossible for Ron Paul to get the Republican nomination – but it would be very difficult. It would be necessary to stage a coup and to stack the convention with Libertarian & Constitution Party types as delegates. To do this would require a lot of planning and I don’t know if there is enough time left to do this.

If the Ron Paul campaign did manage to pull off a successful coup, then I’d bet that you are are right that the Republican Party bosses would do everything they could to destroy him. In fact, they may even try to assassinate him. They would also likely back an independent candidate for President, like perhaps Michael Bloomberg.

“Get some perspective. Support Paul but recognize him for what he is—a complete pariah among his party mates. Way more so than Kucinich; probably more so even than Gravel.”

I’m glad to see Ron Paul in there fucking things up for the big government RepubliCON fascists.