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In the end, the question you raise is up to the Libertarian body politic and then up to the American people. If the Libertarian body politic turns out in a timely way to support its candidates, then they may do well. If they do not, then our candidates will do much less well.

On a positive note, the National office has done something substantially positive for the state parties, namely rounding up a list of press contacts by reporter name and reporter specialty for press outlets in each state. The Massachusetts list has thousands and thousands of names.

I think there are several critical issues to having a successful Presidential campaign:

1) Get off the ground early, including an early volunteer effort and an early fundraising effort, not to mention an early electronic effort. I declared in 2006. I’m up to 60 volunteers, which is at least a step in the right direction.

2) Fiscal legitimacy. Legitimacy has several parts, including (i) People can see that the money is being spent honestly and legitimately, (ii) The candidate is obviously sending money to the campaign, not vice versa, (iii) When money is raised for a purpose, it actually gets spent more or less on that purpose, at least most of the time.

3) Libertarians reach out to the right and the left. We stand for reducing Federal spending, paying off the Federal debt, and reducing taxes. We stand for civil liberties. We stand for social liberties. Government has no role in the abortion issue. Official homophobia—dont ask dont tell—is not OK with real libertarians. Religious persecution—churches should not be allowed to marry gays—is not okay with real libertarians.

George

Celebrity, sane message and slickness are still selling points, but Republican history, differences with LP Platform, unwillingness to visit conventions, and the “all hat and no cattle” factor are big negatives.

Obviously, I should have done this research before guestimating odds earlier, but:
A. I am not betting money
B. I don’t care, particularly. (Ron Paul is the real libertarian candidate in this race.)

At least, I am not betting money on the LP presidential race. I am putting money on my favorite Republican long-shot.

We also lost half of the members of one group because of the LP immigration stand, but thats another subject.

“I don’t like Kubby at all. Mostly because he can only campaign legally in 12 states without going to jail for violation for parole.”

Very true, except for the fact that Kubby can campaign legally in 50 states without going to jail for violation for (sic) parole.

1) Kubby is not and has never been on parole.

2) Kubby is not barred from visiting or traveling through any of the United States.

3) Kubby has a prescription—100% legal and valid in every state—for Marinol, and has found it acceptable as a temporary substitute when he can’t get real marijuana. He couldn’t replace marijuana with Marinol over the long term, but it keeps his blood pressure to a tolerable level in the short term (up to a few days).

Of course, you already knew all of these things. You just persist in believing that you can get away with lying even though you should know better by now.

The man has zero credibility and even less celebrity.

I don’t like Kubby at all. Mostly because he can only campaign legally in 12 states without going to jail for violation for parole. But even I would admit he has a tiny bit of celebrity in some California/West Coast Marijuana circles.

If Root doesn’t get the nomination, at least Kubby could pull half a million votes for the LP and it wouldn’t be a complete embarrassment.

Though, the LP would be forever pegged as the Pot Party. There’s a side of me that says that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

And I’ll be holding my nose supporting Kubby, much as I did with Badnarik in 2004.

You write:

“Even Tom Knapp has admitted such.”

... as if I hadn’t predicted it as soon as Paul announced and said it frequently ever since.

Ron Paul is the frontrunner with LP members for as long as he’s in the GOP race, whether I like it or not (and I don’t). Once he’s out of the GOP race, he’ll be the frontrunner for the LP nomination until and unless he comes right out and says “look, I’m not going to accept it. Shoo … go away.”

Root, on the other hand, isn’t the front-runner anywhere. Last time I noticed, Ladbrokes had him at even odds for the LP nomination … and their handicappers must be smoking crack by the bagful to be rating him even that highly. If I knew how to get through the friggin’ Internet roadblocks that I assume are there (at least they are for the Internet casino I used to occasionally patronize), I’d bet every spare dime I had against Root winning the LP nomination, because that’s damn near a sure un-thing.

Of the currently declared candidates for the LP’s presidential nomination, Kubby’s the only one I’d give even or better odds to—call it 7-5 in his favor. Root, 25-1 against. Phillies, 50-1 against. Smith, 100-1 against. All others … well, let’s just say that if you were willing to plunk down a thousand bucks, it would take Mike Bloomberg to cover your bet.

If an opponent who a) has or can raise reasonably large amounts of money and b) is credible enters the LP nomination race, Kubby could be in trouble. His current opponents, however, are probably SOL unless they can talk the delegates into accepting complimentary lobotomies, or prevail upon the chair to disqualify all nomination ballots on which the letter “K” appears.

Bloomberg—himself—is worth $5.8 billion. That’s 4,142 times the market value of Root’s entire company, and around 40,000 times the value of Root’s holdings in it.

Bloomberg to Root = Root to someone with $3.75. So if you have $375 in your bank account, you are 100 times closer to Root’s wealth than Root is to Bloomberg’s.

Please never again compare the two.