LP List Poll: Paul, Root, Phillies, and Kubby Win
The LP List poll results are available in this post by Stephen Gordon on Last Free Voice. What follows is the summary:
New Survey Results: Paul Wins, Root Wins, Phillies Wins, Kubby WinsThe lastest LibertarianLists survey is completed. This time, we spent more time looking at information which will impact the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidates. It looks as if all of the LP presidential frontrunners will be able to spin the data in a favorable manner to their respective campaigns.
Ron Paul is still the big winner. However, if you take a look at all survey respondents, Wayne Allyn Root comes out on top of the LP (Presidential) candidates, with Kubby and Phillies tied for second.
Now let’s take a look at how self-identified Libertarian Party members voted. After Paul, the order goes Phillies, Kubby and then Root.
If we only look at LP members who plan to show, as well as may possibly show, at the Libertarian National Convention, (aside from Paul) Phillies still wins with the choices offered. While I’m not displaying the table, Kubby won with the LP members who said they would not be likely delegates to the convention.
In order to speculate about which LP candidate will win the Libertarian National Convention, it was important to only provide the likely convention choices in a question directed to LP members. Considering the influence of Ron Paul’s campaign on LP politics, we asked the question two different ways. In both cases, Kubby won, followed by Phillies and then Root.
July 29th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
From Last Free Voice
July 29th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
I seriously doubt Root will get the nomination over Kubby or Phillies. His e-mail lambasting Ron Paul’s foreign policy was his death as the nominee. Most Libertarians do not want one like what Root is urging, which is basically a continuation of Bush’s foreign policy.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
It’d be better if Kubby or Phillies won the nomination, not Wayne Root. Wayne’s a super nice guy and has a lot going for him. But we’re about to nominate the first libertarian-leaning Republican candidate for President since Goldwater – Rudy Giuliani (or Fred Thompson). It would be nuts for the Libertarian Party to run a strong candidate with such a scenario, thus ensuring a Hillary victory.
Better to run a mediocre LP candidate like Kubby or Phillies. Kubby is probably better, cause he won’t embarrass the LP, and seems like a nice guy, and a good speaker too.
I’d say 350,000 votes for Kubby for President for 2008, maybe 400,000 is just perfect; Not enough to cause Giuliani the election, yet not too small to embarrass the LP (like Phillies probably would do with a 200,000 vote total.)
Root would get too many votes. He’d probably even beat Ed Clark with 1 to 2 million. Not good. Not good at all. Cause it would come directly out of the Giuliani column.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
Joey Dauben took me way out of context in stating that Root won. He clipped the title, didn’t link the article, or the data which shows Root does not win if you count LP members or delegates.
I’ve been a strong supporter of this site since it was launched, but I feel this is very irresponsible journalism. I’m requesting that you correct the record.
The data he’s talking about are here.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Joey, you failed to mention that Giuliani was the next best winner in the GOP column after Ron Paul. Of all the Republican candidates on the Libertairan Lists ballot, Giuliani came out on top after Paul.
That’s the most startling stat to come out of this poll, and probably completely unexpected by Steve Gordon and Seth. All this bashing of Giuliani on all these Forums, yet he places 2nd!! on the Libertarian Lists survey after Ron Paul, as the choice of the hardcore highly partisan Libertarian Party set.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Seems out of context, and there is no link to the actual post. pretty lame.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
I copied and pasted out of an e-mail I was sent.
It didn’t have it linked to anything.
Irresponsible would be not putting Gordon’s name to it.
It’s not my fault the information didn’t have a URL.
If I wasn’t such a vocal proponent of WAR though, you guys wouldn’t be bitching that much.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Giuliani a libertarian? THAT’S a real knee-slapper. Hey Eric, if Giuliani doesn’t work out, maybe you can recruit “libertarian” Lyndon LaRouche.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Dondero,
Some other issues aside ( the libertarianism of Rudy,etc), the scenario you describe is unlikely.
I don’t see any way a strong LP POTUS campaign would “ensure a Hillary victory.” You are overestimating Root’s vote totals. However, even if he did manage 1 million (fantasyland)- It’s not even ging to be that close. It won’t be any “Nader factor” because the general election is going to be a bloodbath- And I don’t mean because of any Goldwater-like candidates, either.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Joey,
I apologize. I’ll be clear, whomever is sending out such an e-mail is distorting the truth quite a bit. That it has my name on it concerns me greatly.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
You are a fucking idiot, Joe. Root has raised $0. He isn’t even registered with the FEC. He isn’t going to contribute a dime to his own campaign, and he got a massive 4% of the vote in a little poll. This was the stupidest post you’ve ever made in a long line of stupid and embarassing posts.
July 29th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
BTW, I haven’t decided who I’m going to support, yet. However, if a campaign intentionally took me out of context, it’s a big strike, in my book.
July 29th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Joey,
Would you at least please be so kind as to indicate the source of the e-mail you received and link to the entire piece?
July 29th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Mr. Dondero,
Senator Clinton would mop the floor with your guy. Why would a Big Government voter cast his/her ballot for an unabashedly Big Government Republican, such as Giuliani, when he/she can cast his/her ballot for an equally unabashedly Big Government Democrat?
July 29th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Someone with the WAR campaign. That’s all I can say at this point.
And Stephen, you don’t have to apologize. In fact, I want you and other LP folks to know that just because I’m helping Eric Dondero on his radio show and things, I do not share every view he does. I consider many 9/11 truthers friends too, even though I don’t subscribe to those views.
Anyway, just thought I’d like to clarify.
July 29th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Again Joey with a “9/11 Truther” reference. I’m convinced he’s on the payroll! LOL.
JK Joey.
July 29th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
I tryed having Rot come on my Third Party Debate but no answer from his campaign. Wow.
Asher Heimermann
http://www.Common-Nation.com
July 29th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
The LibertarianLists poll is interesting, but ultimately inconclusive.
George Phillies wins among likely LP convention delegates. Steve Kubby wins among LP members overall. Root gets a boost and comes out on top if “libertarian Republicans” who are neither LP members nor likely to cast delegate votes in Denver are counted. So, any campaign could come out with a “my candidate wins” blurb. Hell, I could make a pitch based on one set of numbers “proving” that it’s literally impossible for anyone except Kubby to win the LP nomination. But …
None of the LP candidates come anywhere close to Ron Paul in the poll. He is the elephant in the room and things are unlikely to really resolve themselves until his campaign has wound up one way or another. Until then, it’s both indeterminate and volatile.
July 29th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
“But we’re about to nominate the first libertarian-leaning Republican candidate for President since Goldwater – Rudy Giuliani (or Fred Thompson).”
LOL!
July 29th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
Joey,
Again, would you please either take my name off this post, place the full title I used onto it or provide the relevant background information? At this moment, you are knowingly and with intent providing false information – and misusing my name to do so.
Any reasonable journalistic source would either update, retract or clarify if a mistake had been made. You aren’t doing any of the above.
July 29th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
I don’t usually significantly edit the posts of of bloggers on here, but I agree that the post doesn’t fully represent the facts of the matter. So I’m going to adjust the headline and conent and include a link to the original source material.
I apologize to anyone who may have gotten the wrong idea here. While the poll certainly contained some good news for Mr. Root, it was equally positive for the other three candidates. Opinion posts are one thing, but we need to be careful not to mix factual reporting with promoting any one candidate or cause over another.
Thanks everybody!
July 29th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
The most important number in the poll, whose complete statistics may be seen at http://www.libertarianlists.com , is that a majority of those polled in the first poll had no idea who the Libertarian candidates for our nomination are. I believe this is related to the lp.org policy of not linking to their own party’s presidential candidates (they’ll sell espace for $5000, for which I could buy 10 million blogads impressions), their refusal to allow the Presidential candidates to rent their lists under the traditional secure conditions, and until very recently their refusal to sell ad space in LP News to Federal candidates paying hard money (They are now selling…for about 3 times what was charged in 2002, to about 40% of the audience).
Also, the poll never actually got around to presenting voters with a list of the actual candidates, as opposed to a list to which noncandidates and other alternatives were added, so the key question was not reached.
July 29th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Thanks, Austin.
July 29th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
To clarify, thanks for updating this posting.
July 29th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
George:
Who should be added or subtracted from this list of candidates?
Answer Count Percentage
No answer 0 0.00%
None of the above (1) 32 6.39%
George Phillies (2) 44 8.78%
Steve Kubby (3) 56 11.18%
Wayne Allyn Root (4) 31 6.19%
Barry Hess (5) 17 3.39%
Christine Smith (6) 12 2.40%
Daniel Imperato (7) 5 1.00%
Dave Hollist (8) 0 0.00%
John Finan (9) 0 0.00%
Robert Milnes (10) 0 0.00%
Alden Link (11) 2 0.40%
Bob Jackson (12) 3 0.60%
Mike Jingozian (13) 0 0.00%
undecided (14) 274 54.69%
Other (-oth-) 25 4.99%
July 29th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
I like Stephen, but to call ANYONE who posts here a “journalist” is a stretch. Just a pet peeve of mine. I’m sure I’ll catch hell but to me, if you post on a blog, you’re a blogger…not a journalist.
I once ran a pretty popular MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) blog and at no point did I ever consider myself a “journalist” while others who had MMA blogs often felt they were. They also often times got facts wrong.
July 29th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
I’d say journalism is in the eye of the beholder.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:03 am
Am I the only one here who has had enough of Joey’s posts?
July 30th, 2007 at 7:30 am
“I once ran a pretty popular MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) blog and at no point did I ever consider myself a ‘journalist’ while others who had MMA blogs often felt they were. They also often times got facts wrong.”
Which MMA blog did you run? I’m a huge MMA fan.
July 30th, 2007 at 9:34 am
Steve,
I believe the interesting list of candidates would match the list of people who have filed with the FEC and are running as Libertarians. That includes Kubby, Smith, Jackson, Jingozian (at last report), Imperato (at last report), and myself, and the choice NOTA, but not (when last I checked) Root or Hess.
George
July 30th, 2007 at 10:08 am
My God, Phillies sure does whine a lot.
“No one knows who I am, and it is LP National’s fault.”
“These other piddly candidates shouldn’t be included. Sure WAR beats me among those polled, but he shouldn’t have even been included because he’s a poopy head.”
July 30th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
George, I would have bitched at the LP lady who called me asking (and getting) a donation yesterday had I have known. Oh well.
July 30th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
George has a legitimate complaint with LPHQ’s list rental and newsletter advertising policy.
Access at reasonable rates to the mailing list and LP News serve a vital function in a small party—not just for the candidates, but for the membership.
“Serious” Republican and Democratic candidates can reach primary voters through “mainstream media.” Third party candidates are generally ignored by the MSM … the main way for them to reach their party’s supporters, or for those supporters to learn about the candidates seeking the nomination, is through the party’s own internal communications channels.
There are workarounds, but why should there HAVE to be workarounds? It’s in the interest of the party for its candidates to receive equal access/maximum reasonable exposure so that the membership can make informed decisions. Reasonable fees for list rental and LP News advertising weed out the truly “marginal even at the third party level” candidates. Unreasonable fees, or just plain refusing to rent the list or sell the ads, harms the party.
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