Reuters poll: Third-party candidates are helping Obama
A just-released Reuters poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47-40 in the national popularity contest, which, of course, does not determine who the next President will be (the Electoral College does that). However, when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the options, Obama’s lead over McCain grows to 10%:
Obama 46%
McCain 36%
Barr 3%
Nader 3%
Says the London Guardian:
When independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, who are both in the process of trying to add their names to state ballots, are included in the survey Obama’s margin over McCain grows to 10 percentage points, 46 percent to 36 percent. Nader and Barr each picked up 3 percent, but nearly all of their support came from McCain. With Nader and Barr included, about 60 percent of conservatives back McCain, and 71 percent of self-identified Republicans support him.
It’s hard to imagine that Nader’s votes are coming from John McCain, and the Guardian article doesn’t explain that. What is truly significant, however, is that at this point McCain still gets only 60% support from conservatives and 71% support from Republicans. That sort of lukewarm to cool support from your base is a recipe for defeat in November.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Nader could very well pull some votes from McCain. I consider myself to be progressive, but I will not vote for Obama and the Demorats after their sell out on FISA and all the flip flopping to become Retardican Lite. My vote will go to Barr.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Don’t be surprised.
I’ve met a number of Republicans who have voted for Nader. So much reflexive voting that would prevent them from ever voting Democrat, but they know Nader’s name and his reputation as a long time consumer advocate.
They also might support him because a number of conservatives oppose NAFTA, as Nader does.
As the Obama craze has hypnotized most liberals, more conservatives are likely to move around to third party options than liberals.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:33 am
This is a problem Barr needs to address. Barr needs to put more emphasis on Obama’s flip flop on FISA, as well as his own work on DOMA, along with any other issues liberals or Democrats might care about. A Libertarian canidate should be able to pull support from both sides of the isle, something Baldwin and Nader simply cannot do. Barr needs to focus a little more on pulling support away from Obama. This will also help dispel the idea that Barr is simply a “spoiler” for McCain.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:47 am
It is not surprising that Nader gets votes of people who would otherwise vote for McCain. See the Washington Post of Oct. 22, 2004, page one. It said the 3 leading pollsters all gave extra questions when they found a Nader voter. To a slight extent, these voters said they were more likely to vote for Bush than for Kerry. Also see the January 1, 2005 Ballot Access News (paper copy) which analyzed Nader’s votes in 2004. Nader’s best state was Alaska. His best county was a Utah county that voted for Bush. In three-fourths of the states in which Nader was on the ballot, his best county percentagewise was a county that was more pro-Bush than that state as a whole.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I have a question. If Nader will only be on the ballot in ten states why does he matter? I do not care what Nader HOPES to do. The fact is Nader will be lucky to be on the ballot in 20 states whereas Barr will be on the ballot in 46-49 states. Media don’t you get ballot access?
July 17th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Larry, why do you think that Nader will only be on the ballot in 20 states? And how is it that you are so certain of your opinion as to call it a “fact?” Nader claims that he will be on the ballot in 45 states and has a clearly set out plan that would make that happen. What better/additional information do you have that should lead Nader supporters to think that Nader is wrong in his prediction and that you are right?
July 17th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Richard,
A lot of that also may have to do with the “impending victory” syndrome.
Here in Illinois, many Republicans are comfortable voting for Barr because they know McCain has NO chance to win the state. They are more confident in their protest vote because they know their party’s candidate is out of contention here.
July 17th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I’m afraid that all too many “progressives” are caught up in the Obama lie, so many continue to prioritize “hope” over the raw data emerging from events day-to-day, that even Obama’s flips on FISA, campaign finance, Iraq, NAFTA, etc., make no real difference to them. A classic example, Glenn Greenwald. Kvetching constantly about the perfidy of the Democratic “opposition”, Greenwald purposes to hold wuss Democrats “responsible” for their failures to mount real opposition to the regime’s warmongering and police state tactics. The vehicle, ads in the offending Democrats’ districts! One notes, however, that the whole stategy presupposes support for Obama. One would think that anyone with a mouth as big and as publicised as Greenwald’s would be urging support for Nader given the depth of he feeling involved. But no, Greenwald proves himself as lacking in courage as those he criticizes. Sadly, he’s likely more the rule than the exception.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Yes John, I am proud to be one of those progressives who don’t care what Obama does during this campaign. It is much more courageous to vote for the lesser of two imperfect people, then to vote your conscience and get the true opposition candidate elected. 90% of people understand that Obama and McCain truly have different visions for this country. The more conservatives belong to the dumb minority that don’t understand that, the easier it will be for the Christian/Muslim libertarian/socialist Obama Revolution to come. I don’t care how far to the right Nader moves, he is still a fascist/stalinist criminal.
God bless the pope on World Youth Day. God bless Saints Peter and Paul, the patron saints of politics. God bless Ted Kennedy. Amen.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
CatTrot,
:-)
Yes, indeed, God bless our Holy Father, Benedict XVI, and CatTrot as well. Pray for us, Sts. Peter & Paul. In nominee patri, et filii, et Spiritus Sancti!
July 17th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
The Reuter’s poll puts the lie to the myth that Nader votes are drawn from would-be Democratic supporters. That is such a well developed myth that the Democrats will attack Nader’s ballot access to protect the Big Lie that Nader cost Gore the election. Watch the results of this poll disappear.
July 17th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Expose Obama for his decision on FISA! McCain has already been exposed, so Obama is next. Let’s get Nader and Barr in the Google debates. Email and write to google. I already have.
July 17th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Richard Winger of Ballot Access News believes that Nader has enough money to hire a professional signature gathering team.
No-one knows more about this than Richard Winger.
Nader has collected about three times the donations of Barr.
That would tend to prove the point that Nader can make the ballot.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Why is always assumed that all those third party votes would vote for the two headed party if the third parties didn’t exist? I have never voted GOP or DNC for POTUS… never have never will.
July 17th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
it may be hard to imagine for you, but that doesn’t change the fact that Nader, and Libertarians, have always had more attraction to traditional “conserve”ative Republicans than to Dems
the spoiler effect did not steal the last two presidential elections, the “president” did
July 18th, 2008 at 5:04 am
The Nader activists are engaging in their same old tricks.
In 2004, in the Libertarian Party of Texas ballot drive, all these New Yorkers – mostly grungy college kids – came down to Houston for Nader. They scoped out where all the LP petitioners were, and the next day, they’d come in with 4 or 5 of them and block the LPers from getting petition signatures, and take over the locations themselves.
They did this most prominently at the Houston Zoo (absolute best petitioning spot in Houston), at the local public libraries and all over downtown.
Well, they’re now doing the exact same thing to LP petitioners out in the field right now for the Libertarian Party.
They come in late to a State, scope out the LP petitioners to see where they are petitioning, and come in with 2 or 3 of their guys to steal the locations.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:11 am
In Ohio, the Nader petitioners were going around downtown Cincinnati, signing up anyone they could find to register to vote. They didn’t even bother asking if the person was 18 or not, or if they were a legal citizen of the United States.
I personally witnessed one of their ACORN employees signing up a teenager in front of the public library. Another one they signed up was already a registered voter. She had just signed my petition. But the grungy ACORN guy asked her to register to vote. I then yelled at the guy, hey, she’s already registered to vote, and she hasn’t changed her address, so you cannot sign her up again.
He responded that he just wanted the money for the registration, and then turned to her and asked her if she’d help him make a few dollars.
It was a common trick for these ACORNer Nader supporters to just ask anyone on the street they could find if they could help them “make a buck,” by signing their registration form. Homeless people, illegal aliens, anyone who was walking, talking or breathing, the Nader Raiders signed ‘em up.
Who is ever going to keep tabs on these people?
July 18th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Corporate: You asked me why I did not think Nader would be on the ballot in very many states. I am just doing an internet search for Nader and ballot access. That is the information I have found. Do you have an unbiased source for information on Nader Ballot access? I am basing this also on the fact that it is late in the game and Libertarians are way ahead of Nader on ballot access and when Nader insists on running as an Independent he needs to start the ballot petitioning all over again. Look if Nader wants to run that is fine. Have him start his own party or join the Greens but to have to start ballot access over and over again is just dumb. Go to votenader.org and lp.org and see who is ahead for yourself.
July 19th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Follow the news at Ballot Access News and look at Nader’s plan. He has a plan that would put him on 45 states’ ballots by September 20 and has met every benchmark so far.
I’m not sure what comparison you want to make between the LP (or do you mean Barr?) and Nader. Are you talking about ballot access or about fund raising? With respect to ballot access, Nader started at 0 while the LP started with access on more than 50% of the states’ ballots, I believe. Nader has effectively added 15 states to his count so far and is on pace to get 45 or so. Barr will probably have 48 or so. But if you’re talking about fundraising, Nader has received more than twice as much as Barr and already has as much in FEC matching funds as Barr has raised total. So I don’t know what comparison you are suggesting.