Poll listing of third party candidates reduces Obama’s lead
A new poll by Opinion Research Corporation, released by CNN, raises questions about the inclusion of third-party candidates in the polling question.
When respondents are given only two names, Barack Obama and John McCain, they choose Obama over McCain 51% to 44%—a 7-point spread.
When respondents are given five names—Obama, McCain, Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, and Cynthia McKinney—Obama’s lead is cut to 46%-42%—a 4-point spread.
This suggests that most of the third-party votes are coming at the expense of Barack Obama.
In the poll, Nader gets 6% support, Barr 3%, and McKinney 1%.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Indeed this would have been a great year for fusion. I suspect the big two knew that when they rolled out the false unity08 ruse…
August 6th, 2008 at 10:40 am
This could be the year the non-majors plus Nader keep the major candidates from getting a majority.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:09 am
I certainly hope that Bob Barr and the Libertarians get more public name recognition and poll presence. The thought of either of the “major party” candidates winning this election unchallenged is a dismal one.
Someone should give the public a choice, not an echo.
If Obama and McCain are the “best and the brightest” for the Dems and Reps, those two parties have lost any right to govern America! A vote for the Libertarians is a chance to start replacing those clearly defective agencies with something better: the Libertarian Party as a new major Party.
PEACE AND FREEDOM!!
David K. Meller
August 6th, 2008 at 11:23 am
I like that barr pulls 3% percent, but mccain only loses 2% – so much for all the talk of him only pulling from the Reps. – that looks like 33% of his people are from the Dems.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Guess Chuck Baldwin does not matter. What a shock.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Three other national polls Zogby, Bloomberg, and WSJ said Nader-Barr votes came from McCain not Obama and one reported in NYT last night said Obama’s lead remained the same with inclusion of third parties so this last poll is suspect. Dems need to believe Nader draws from Obama when the opposite is true.
August 6th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Statistics …
w/o 3rd party, 95% choose one of two
with 3rd party, 98% choose one of five
We can’t conclude much of anything regarding where the 3rd party votes come from. We can conclude that 3% more people are willing to identify a prefered candidate when given five choices.
August 6th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Statistics
NO MENTION OF THE ELECTORIAL COLLEGE
Statistics as Trivia…..Donald Raymond Lake
August 6th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
If the GOP is so worried about small government conservatives voting FOR Bob Barr instead of AGAINST Obama, they should have nominated Ron Paul
August 6th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I would love for Nader this time to cut into obama’s votes. He is just barely ahead of McCain. What with all the good old male blogges dinging and donging along with McCain like they did Hillary. You’d think the messiah would be running away with the polls.
And for information who in the heck takes these polls. No body, not one person I know all over the country has been asked if they are going to vote for the messiah…you know obama who walks on water. Maybe he sunk wouldn’t that be good news.
August 6th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
I think Nader will get more votes from McCain than he will from Obama. That is because some of the Hilary Clinton primary voters who said they will vote for McCain in the general election instead of Obama, will likely decide to vote for Nader instead. Nobody in the presidential race is claiming to be the Messiah, Annointed One, or “The One”, instead some Republicans (especially if they don’t want to see solutions America’s environmental problems and dependence on oil for fuel) are using those labels in order to play dirty politics and in order to make ludicrous remarks in the hopes of misleading people. As for Obama, his plans for fighting the global warming problem and creating energy indepence can in indeed work, whereas McCain’s plans are not as good. However Nader’s energy plans are even better for the environment and human health.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
You people need to forget vote stealers like Nader the Traitor. He’s just a narcissist who takes our votes so Bush will win. We’ll just have to work extra hard this year to keep Nader the Traitor off the ballot so he can’t steal our votes!
August 6th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
DaFroot: Care to wager hard cash that any one named Bush will be sworn in on January 20th, 2009? ————-Donald Raymond Lake
August 6th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Scallion—three of the last four elections, the president has not had a majority.
Clinton was a plurality winner both times and Bush a minority “winner.”
Not unique, though. In the Gilded Age, Hayes, Garfield, Cleveland, Harrison, Cleveland again were all plurality winners. Harrison was a minority winner.