Comments on: Polls show 3rd Party candidates drawing nearly 20% of the vote http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/ Wed, 07 Jan 2009 21:29:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=1.5.1.3 by: Roscoe http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-775487 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:46:07 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-775487 Unfortunately, without network tv ads, (and Barr is not raising the money to buy such), Barr will be doing well to beat Ed Clark's total in 1980. I think he will but it won't be anywhere near 2-3% of the total votes cast. Unfortunately, without network tv ads, (and Barr is not raising the money to buy such), Barr will be doing well to beat Ed Clark’s total in 1980.
I think he will but it won’t be anywhere near 2-3% of the total votes cast.

]]> by: darren http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-774545 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 03:07:28 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-774545 This idea that 17% of the electorate might move to third party candidates is absurd. Almost all of those will eventually choose the Democrat or Republican. Putting aside that this 17% is actually listed as undecided, third party candidates always poll best in late spring and early summer when the electorate is flirting and drop off sharply in the fall. When Nader and Barr are included in national polls, they together earn 3 to 9%. That higher end was more often seen in May/June than July/August. The trend looks like a repeat of 2000 with Buchanan and 2004 with Nader whose polling in the mid single digits dwindled to less than 1% by Election Day. Nader 2000 went from high single digits to 3%. Andersen in 1980 dropped from 20% to 7%. Perot in 1996 fell from mid-teens to 8%. Wallace in 1968 slipped substantially to finish at 13% in November. Even Perot in 1992 finished at 19%, way off his impressive May/June numbers when he sometimes led with 30+%. This idea that 17% of the electorate might move to third party candidates is absurd. Almost all of those will eventually choose the Democrat or Republican. Putting aside that this 17% is actually listed as undecided, third party candidates always poll best in late spring and early summer when the electorate is flirting and drop off sharply in the fall.

When Nader and Barr are included in national polls, they together earn 3 to 9%. That higher end was more often seen in May/June than July/August. The trend looks like a repeat of 2000 with Buchanan and 2004 with Nader whose polling in the mid single digits dwindled to less than 1% by Election Day. Nader 2000 went from high single digits to 3%.

Andersen in 1980 dropped from 20% to 7%. Perot in 1996 fell from mid-teens to 8%. Wallace in 1968 slipped substantially to finish at 13% in November. Even Perot in 1992 finished at 19%, way off his impressive May/June numbers when he sometimes led with 30+%.

]]> by: Steve Newton http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-774335 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:25:17 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-774335 Adam, maybe they <i>should</i> vote third party, but they usually don't. So let's be real and keep them in the category of people who have to be actively courted and torn away from their usual habit of making up their minds in the last week to vote for one loser or the other. If we just assume they're ours, which is the implication of the post, we make ourselves feel pretty good now at the cost of a real let-down come November. Adam, maybe they should vote third party, but they usually don’t. So let’s be real and keep them in the category of people who have to be actively courted and torn away from their usual habit of making up their minds in the last week to vote for one loser or the other.

If we just assume they’re ours, which is the implication of the post, we make ourselves feel pretty good now at the cost of a real let-down come November.

]]> by: Adam http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-774323 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:17:42 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-774323 Well, they didn't really give us an exact number...but honestly, I think that peoeple that are undecided should vote third party. There are alot of different ideologies. I think people should be able to find the one that's right for them. We don't need another Republicrat, or Democrap in office. Well, they didn’t really give us an exact number…but honestly, I think that peoeple that are undecided should vote third party. There are alot of different ideologies. I think people should be able to find the one that’s right for them. We don’t need another Republicrat, or Democrap in office.

]]> by: Steve Newton http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-773889 Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:51:28 +0000 http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/08/12/polls-show-3rd-party-candidates-drawing-nearly-20-of-the-vote/#comment-773889 Actually, guys, that's not what the polling says. There is a profound difference between people undecided between two candidates and those who are considering a vote for a third. The surveys that get Nader and Barr that high are not national polls, they're primarily individual states, and most of that polling is coming from one source: Zobgy Interactive, which is the only one to consistently include 3rd party candidates. Currently, the real 3rd Party leaning vote nationwide appears to be running 7% to a possible high of 9%, with an equal number in most states undecided. Optimism is fine, but this borders on distortion. Actually, guys, that’s not what the polling says. There is a profound difference between people undecided between two candidates and those who are considering a vote for a third.

The surveys that get Nader and Barr that high are not national polls, they’re primarily individual states, and most of that polling is coming from one source: Zobgy Interactive, which is the only one to consistently include 3rd party candidates.

Currently, the real 3rd Party leaning vote nationwide appears to be running 7% to a possible high of 9%, with an equal number in most states undecided.

Optimism is fine, but this borders on distortion.

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