Nader, Barr, and/or McKinney could play spoiler role in Nevada

PolitickerNV.com notes that the new Time/CNN poll shows Obama 49, McCain 44 in Nevada when registered voters are given only those two names. But when third party candidates’ names are added to the choices, this is how it turns out:

Obama 41
McCain 41
Nader 6
Barr 5
McKinney 3

PolitickerNV.com says “Ralph Nader could draw enough votes from U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to affect the outcome of the vote in Nevada” and “this poll suggests there is an opportunity for McCain and a challenge for Obama in Nevada.”

Hmm, why does PolitickerNV.com focus only on Nader? Barr is pretty even with Nader in the poll, so they could cancel each other out. Or, another possible scenario: Nader and Barr cancel each other out, and then McKinney becomes the spoiler! Also, as the blog notes, we don’t know how “likely voters” would vote differently from these “registered voters.” (And why do pollsters even bother to poll unlikely voters, who obviously are the added element in the “registered voters” category?)

The real lesson from the poll, it seems to us, is that Nevada is up for grabs.

7 Responses to “Nader, Barr, and/or McKinney could play spoiler role in Nevada”

  1. Stephanie Says:

    Actually, if Nader wasn’t running, I wouldn’t vote at all. And what about the other side? You sure he’s not “stealing” votes from McCain as well? It’s not stealing votes when someone votes for who they actually want. Stealing votes = Bush from the past two elections.. we all know he didn’t win and that strings were pulled. Nobody cares about the truth, let’s just push that under the carpet shall we..

  2. NewFederalist Says:

    I wonder why the IAP candidate, Chuck Baldwin, was not included? I would have thought as active as that state party affiliate is that he would register at least as well as McKinney.

  3. Green in Brooklyn Says:

    Great news for McKinney, as this is the first poll I’ve seen with her above 1% in any state polls. As the word slowly gets out that she is running, her numbers should improve..

  4. Jonathan Says:

    http://www.nolanchart.com/article4627.html

    Please give it a THUMBS UP after reading

  5. Michael Says:

    Don’t forget Nevada is the only state in the country that has “None Of The Above” as an option on the ballot. I wish we could have it in all 50!!

  6. David Gaines Says:

    Stephanie makes a good point, one the national media keeps ignoring no matter how many exit polls in the past made it clear. Nader is popular across the political spectrum within that universe of people who are dissatisfied with the establishment and willing to consider a non-major party candidate. At least one poll has shown McCain with more votes, not Obama, with Nader excluded from the poll. It is not at all clear at this point – especially with three 3rd party candidates with higher-than-usual name recognition – who is going to draw votes from whom. Not that at matters to anyone reading this, probably, since everyone has the right to run and endless focusing on the horse race to the exclusion of issues became nauseating long ago.

  7. Cody Quirk Says:

    I wonder why the IAP candidate, Chuck Baldwin, was not included? I would have thought as active as that state party affiliate is that he would register at least as well as McKinney.

    = Political bias.
    They don’t even publish polls of the IAP candidates running in 2 way races.

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