AFP: ‘Forgotten candidates for US president may still impact race’
Agency France Presse (AFP) takes a look at the campaigns of third-party candidates:
...the libertarian candidate Bob Barr, independent Ralph Nader and, to a lesser extent, Chuck Baldwin’s Constitution Party and Green candidate Cynthia McKinney, could have a significant impact on the hopes of McCain or Obama, who remain locked in tight races in key battleground states.
The article adds:
According to independent analysis website RealClearPolitics (RCP), which accumulates multiple polling data, Nader is holding 2.5 percent support nationwide. Barr enjoys 1.3 percent support, and the other candidates all average below one percent support.
October 27th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Stop the Obama Constitutional Crisis
Sign it and pass it on!!
http://www.rallycongress.com/constitutional-qualification/1244/stop-obama-constitutional-crisis/
October 28th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Barr’s 1.3% is below the margin of error. Where is the 4% plus that the Barr campaign team promised? Barr’s credibility is sinking fast and it is likely that he will poll less than Harry Browne and Michael Badnarik. 2009 must be the year that real Libertarians reclaim their party from the neo-con hijackers. Bill Redpath out!!
October 28th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
For one, Barr is on in less states then Badnarik was on in 04’.
October 29th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
@Pollster
This is a huge result compared to previous LP efforts
I agree Barr’s campaign overpromised in the beginning. Russ Varney, who worked on Perot’s campaign, started with a Perot style campaign as his basis.
That was a mistake, they should have started with a usual LP style campaign as their basis. They would have done better.
However, with that said, we’ve seen a lot of CP party members attack the LP this election cycle, and they went unanswered for a while. Many Barr detractors don’t realize they had their opinions shaped by non-LP members, and the usual gaggle of malcontents that never support anyone.
Barr is the best candidate the LP has ever had. It shows from his many media appearances, his ability to get up there in the polls…this is still a good result for the LP, and we’ll see on election day.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
I wish I could have been more active in 3rd parties earlier on. Perhaps I a could have done more to spred the word. It should have been Balwin-Nader. Not the guys we have. I didn’t know. I just didn’t know. What can we do to fight media block out in the future?
October 29th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
correction on name.
October 30th, 2008 at 5:17 am
Until we start calling for a serious boycott of all major corporate media – how many of you consume corporate media (morning newspapers, television news shows, CNN, MCNBC, etc., etc.)?? I believe that even though are numbers are “small”, an all out boycott by all of us would prove quite beneficial! One of the things I want is reporting on the censored news on a regular basis (if you’ve read the “Censored” series of books, you know what I mean). Either they change, or we stop consuming them. I used to get the New York Times for it’s broadway coverage, but in order to be consistent STOPPED! How to organize it?
Yes, I’m disappointed that people are voting for McCain and Obama. Emotional responses have trumed rational ones once again. Deprogramming is needed. But as long as people continue to consume their (dis)information from mainstream sources, they will continue to behave deluded and vote for the one-party Republicrat system.
October 30th, 2008 at 5:34 am
How about an organization that just exists to crush the CP every election cycle, Robert? At this point, that sounds like a worthy cause. The biblethumpers need to pay. First marijuana, now they want to define our candidates for us, what a bunch of bigoted bastards. They should all join jebus on the cross and spare humanity their nonsensical cultish bullshit.
October 30th, 2008 at 8:12 am
The latest Zogby poll has Barr at 0.9%. There is little or no chance of Barr polling more than 1.5%. Harry Browne and Michael Badnarik got about .35%. That is a low bar for Barr to raise.
With Barr on less states, I expect to poll between 0.8 to 1.2% – a million or so votes. Given his national name recognition, a weak GOP candidate in McCain and the possibility of building on the momentum of the Paul campaign, that is very disappointing.
I have been on Barr’s email list from the start of the campaign. The campaign has been dull and amateurish – reflected in the awful merchandise. If you are a third party candidate, you must be seen as anti-establishment (like Ron Paul) to attract the disenchanted and non-aligned voters. Barr is a beltway candidate with a beltway campaign. A missed opportunity to build the party and its core vote!!
October 30th, 2008 at 8:55 am
we’ve seen a lot of CP party members attack the LP this election cycle, and they went unanswered.
That doesn’t explain Barr’s low polling, because only our tiny third party universe even knows the CP exists.
The Barr/Root/Reform strategy, as Reformers explained it to me, was to ignore LP activists. I was told that LP activists were mostly malcontent radicals numbering a few thousand. That to “win votes,” you must appeal to the tens of millions of “real, ordinary Americans” who don’t make the LP their life.
I was told by Reformers that they could safely ignore LP activists, because Barr was targeting his message to “real Americans.” That for every one LP radical activist lost, 100 real Americans would vote for the LP.
Well, real Americans don’t even know the CP exists. So you can’t blame Barr’s low polling on CP attacks. Barr’s polling low because he’s not appealing to real, ordinary Americans.
We may as well have nominated Ruwart. She would have done no worse.
October 30th, 2008 at 10:05 am
To be honest, Thomas Ripos, Ruwart would have struggled to get half a million votes.
The Barr campaign has not only ignored LP activists, it has ignored the LP and its brand. There is no mention of the LP logo on Barr’s merchandise, website or literature. He chose a blue and red colour scheme and cloned Ron Paul’s website and copied his slogan.
Even if Barr gets more than million votes, he will have done to develop the LP or its brand. That is the real tragedy of the Barr campaign – it is Ron Paul lite but with a dull and uninspiring candidate.
If the LP is to make an impact, it needs a charismatic candidate who can reach out to new audiences and spread the message in their language. Drew Carey or Penn Jillette spring immediately to mind. Humor is a devastating political weapon on the internet.
October 30th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Barr is basically a Republican conserative who had a sudden Libertarian converstion, but really seems to be a “states rights” paleolibertarian, which can turn off many people who may have some sympathy for the party or its role in the process.
Like Ron Paul, I suspect that Barr is really running for president to raie money that he can put to his own personal use or prop himself up as a think tank guru.
This is what many Democrats and Republicans do after they leave public office; they run as an Independent/minor party candidate as some sort of political mid-life-one-more-adventure-camapign. They are not interested in electoral reforms or advancing the independent or a minor party movement.
Republican Barr is doing it, i believe here, and he beat out a Democrat seeking the LP nod. A Democrat Tim Penny did so in Minnesota US Senate race for the MN IP and so forth.
October 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
ETJB, I suspect that Barr is gearing for a Senate bid. Here’s the scanario.
The GOP performs dreadfully next week. Barr is invited to the conversative conference that is planned to consider the future of the GOP. He then announces that he is returning to the GOP to relaunch it as a conservative party and that he will run the Senate nomination in Georgia.
Barr asks those who supported his Presidential campaign to donate to his Senate campaign. That would explain his Presidential campaign’s non-libertarian branding.