Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results

... but it’s as close as we can get until Intrade has more granularity and liquidity in its prediction markets for third-party results. Intrade is giving Libertarian Bob Barr a 28% chance of winning more than 1% of the vote, but only an 8% chance of winning more than 2%. Its numbers for Nader are nearly the same, and it doesn’t track other third-party candidates. Here are third-party results for the last two elections.

2000 – 105M2004 – 122M
Ralph Nader2.7% – 2,882,955
0.38% – 465,650
Green
0.10% – 119,859
Libertarian
0.4% – 384,431 0.32% – 397,265
Reform (Buchanan)
0.4% – 448,895
Constitution
0.1% – 98,020 0.12% – 143,630

I hesitate to predict third-party results without a theory that can explain Nader’s wildly-swinging fortunes. I suspect his 2004 result was hurt badly by the perception that he cost Gore the election in 2000. This seemed to be a stunning confirmation of the strength of the wasted-vote argument, because in 2004 there should have been at least 3.8M third-party-qualified presumably-antiwar votes available in opposition to Bush and Kerry’s policy of continuing the Iraq war. Instead, at most 1.1M of those voters pulled the lever for antiwar candidates in 2004.

There seems to be heavy inertia in the Libertarian vote, but I expect Barr’s media exposure and mainstream credibility to double the traditional LP percentage. I’m guessing: Nader 1.5%, McKinney 0.3%, Barr 0.7%, Baldwin 0.15%. With a turnout of about 140M, that would put Barr at the million-vote mark—more than Ed Clark’s high water mark of 921K in 1980, but not very close to Clark’s 1.1%.

20 Responses to “Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results”

  1. Bradley in DC Says:

    Nader was on the ballot for fewer Americans in 2004 compared with 2000. You may want to check my candidate profiles on the Nolan Chart for Nader, McKinney, Barr and Baldwin and the summary here:
    http://www.nolanchart.com/article5158.html
    updated here:
    http://www.nolanchart.com/article5359.html

  2. Roscoe Says:

    Be very surprised if Barr breaks Clark’s record. Clark had those network infomercials. Frankly, I’ve seen one major media mention of Barr in two months.

  3. Luke Says:

    My predictions:

    I’m expecting third parties as a whole to get a much higher percentage of the presidential vote than they did in 2000 or 2004. I expect Nader and The Constitution party to both do better than they ever have before. Libertarians will get a decent amount of the vote. Greens and Socialists will do fine relative to past years, but nothing huge. Ron Paul may cost McCain Montana and will do pretty well in LA. There will be a lot of Ron Paul write-ins across the country.

  4. disinter Says:

    Barfers are only predicint .7% now? What happened to the 15% the retard caucus was preaching when they nominated his neocon ass?

  5. Scott Says:

    I’m not a fan of Barr or Root but if they do get a million votes it will be more than Ruwart could have gotten. Ron Paul, on the other hand…..

  6. disinter Says:

    it will be more than Ruwart could have gotten.

    And that will have accomplished what, exactly? Other than the alienation of a huge portion of the LP’s base… which was CIA asset Barf’s goal all along.

  7. Allen Says:

    Baldwin still get under 200,000 votes. In some state the CP may do better, but as a whole still about the same. The LP should do a little better and I think they should get more ballot access this year with over 26 states. Most people are supporting Ron Paul and the libertarians.

  8. disinter Says:

    Most people are supporting Ron Paul and the libertarians.

    I am not sure what world you live in, but most people are supporting more of the same (McCain/Obama).

  9. Brian Holtz Says:

    I’m not aware of anybody in any LP caucus who ever predicted Barr getting more than 2%.

  10. disinter Says:

    I’m not aware of anybody in any LP caucus who ever predicted Barr getting more than 2%.

    Of course not. Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.

  11. disinter Says:

    I’m not aware of anybody in any LP caucus who ever predicted Barr getting more than 2%.

    “Hogarth, what in he world are you going to do if Barr gats 5 to 7 million votes in November?” – Retard Caucus Queen timothy west

    http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/05/27/kubby-urges-support-for-barrroot-ticket/#comment-622059

  12. disinter Says:

    I’m not aware of anybody in any LP caucus who ever predicted Barr getting more than 2%.

    “Barr/Root can get 5, 10, maybe even 20 million votes.” – Eric Dondero

    http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/05/26/libertarian-party-2nd-ballot-results/#comment-620078

  13. disinter Says:

    “And I will be shocked if Barr does not get at least 5% of the vote. In the end, this will bring a boom to the LP membership, and legitimize us as a 3rd party. I see this as a turning point in the LP history.” – DrBozo

    http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/05/25/the-2008-lp-platform-how-short-and-sweet-it-is/#comment-618922

  14. disinter Says:

    “Even you, disinter, should see some benefit in a Barr candidacy. If what you say is true, and Barr gets less than 0.5% of the vote, than the Reform Caucus will be permanently discredited, and the party will be more likely to nominate radicals in the future.” — darolew

    http://thirdpartywatch.com/2008/05/25/the-2008-lp-platform-how-short-and-sweet-it-is/#comment-621253

    The retard caucus was discredited from day one. Whether the LP is intelligent enough to nominate actual libertarians in the future remains to be seen.

  15. Brian Holtz Says:

    Nice tries, but: – Tim West was only asking a question (and also has quit the LP and LRC) – Dondero has nothing to do with the LRC – DrBozo has nothing to do with the LRC – “darolew” is quoted making a counter-prediction

    Again: can you quote a Reform Caucus leader predicting Barr getting more than 2%, or not?

    See also: http://libertarianintelligence.com/2008/11/did-lp-reformers-prescribe-conservative.html

  16. Not-a-Mushroom Says:

    You can try to spin it anyway you wish. Everyone needs to realize the controlled media blacksout all unapproved campaigns. Keeping the message away from the masses. I hope all of you can stop fooling yourselves. There is a relative small group who controls the major media and the government. Until a third party is able to bypass the major media blackout and get the message to 250 million americans there will never be a breakthrough. The Globalists WIN again and the masses don’t even know what happened to them. WAKE UP friends…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzLXkLXWJ3k

    Your messages didn’t fail, the message was never heard by enough people to succeed!

  17. Pollster Says:

    “There seems to be heavy inertia in the Libertarian vote, but I expect Barr’s media exposure and mainstream credibility to double the traditional LP percentage. I’m guessing: Nader 1.5%, McKinney 0.3%, Barr 0.7%, Baldwin 0.15%. With a turnout of about 140M, that would put Barr at the million-vote mark—more than Ed Clark’s high water mark of 921K in 1980, but not very close to Clark’s 1.1%.”

    Bullshit!! Associated Press reports that 97% of precincts have reported and Barr is stuck on 0.4% and around 480k votes. Barr has performed worse than Harry Browne in 2000. I would take Browne, for all his faults, over Barr any day.

  18. Brian Holtz Says:

    Wow, your data with 97% of precincts reporting seem eerily more accurate than my data based on 0% of precincts reporting.

  19. Richgriffin Says:

    An alternative party candidate will only succeed when he has enough millions of his own money to spend to buy access to corporate media. We need a progressive billionaire to run! On the other hand, we could start running candidates for state rep and state senators and build that way.

  20. Clark Says:

    not-a-mushroom writes: “Your messages didn’t fail, the message was never heard by enough people to succeed!”

    ...exactly..but methinks the LP incorporated is now, and has probably been for some time, controlled by republican/conservative fuck-heads who wish ‘libertarianism’ much ill will..they keep doing the same stoooooooooooooooopid fucking things…failing to acknowledge any ‘larger picture’..

    ..it appears, sadly, the worst amongst us tend to gravitate to ‘the top’ in ‘politics’...the most stooooooooopid, falsely-confident fuck-heads amongst us..

    ...and good one, disinter!...keep rubbing these miserable, phony, republican barf-tards’ noses in their own shit!

    ...have a good day!...

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