The Membership Responds
During the 2000 campaign, there had been repeated warnings that all was not as well as might have been hoped with Browne’s campaign. A series of pointed letters from Bumper Hornberger, all given wide electronic distribution, had outlined issues of concern. Liberty Magazine gave significant coverage to Libertarian party issues. Writing prior to the revelation of the Willis Invoice and Willis’s confession, Liberty Magazine concluded that the worst of the accusations against Browne and Willis were not proven by the record. At the 2000 National Convention, Browne faced significant opposition from three (four, counting Hornberger’s on-again, off-again campaign) other Presidential candidates. National polling data showed Browne stuck well below the voter support levels he had proposed to attain. In November 2000, many Libertarians went to the polling places with a sense of foreboding, a sense that proved well justified by events.
Even before the Browne-Willis scandal erupted, National Party members were aware that the 2000 Presidential campaign had done poorly. There had been expectations raised that the 2000 Browne campaign would be substantially stronger than his 1996 campaign. After all, Browne had a larger, more experienced staff. He raised much more money. Fundraising letters spoke of a coherent plan to deploy television advertising. Despite all these changes, Browne did substantially worse in 2000 than he did in 1996.
Party members began voting with their feet. Historically, Party membership had often climbed in election years, sometimes dramatically. In 2000, Party membership was substantially flat. In 2001, Party membership crashed, falling from over 33,000 at its 2000 peak to under 28,000 at the start of 2002. The fall continued into 2002; Party membership at this writing in the same period was down to 24,000.
At the same time, mass direct mail recruiting programs lost their effectiveness. In late 2001, a 250,000 piece recruiting mailing was sent to traditionally fruitful mailing lists. Extremely light returns were obtained. Only a few hundred new members—not all due to the mailing—appeared in either of the subsequent months.
Party members and donors also voted with their wallets. In 2001, fundraising efforts imploded. Returns on house letters—the fundraising letters sent to all members every few months—did particularly poorly. According to my LNC sources, the last letter of 2001, at least in the part sent to non-select contributors, barely broke even. The National Committee raised 2.1 million dollars in 2001. Efforts were made to blame weak second-half fundraising on the September air and biological attacks on Washington and New York. Second-half fundraising was about as strong as first-half fund raising. In contrast, in the previous non-election year—1999 —second-half fund raising was markedly weaker than first-half fund raising. Unlike membership in the LPUS, the membership of the ACLU rose dramatically after September 2001. The September events therefore did not necessarily harm the membership of pro-liberty organizations. Claims that September events caused the Party’s membership and donations to decline must therefore be viewed with suspicion. In comparing with years of the more distant past, it is important to remember that LNC income was inflated by state party dues collected by the National Committee under the Unified Membership Program. Prior to 1996, money raised by the LNC was all spent on its own direct operations. That income now includes substantial sums raised on behalf of state parties.
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