The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of so-called swing states show Chase Oliver in 4th place at 3%, behind Kennedy at 5% but ahead of Stein at 1%.
Full statistics (link hat tip to RealClearPolitics.com)
https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/07/Bloomberg-Swing-State-Wave-10.pdf
BLMB12 If the November 2024 election for U.S. president were held today, and Democrat
Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green
Party candidate Jill Stein, and Libertarian Chase Oliver were on the ballot, for whom
would you vote?
Democrat Kamala Harris 2249 45%
Republican Donald Trump 2213 44%
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 237 5%
Green Party candidate Jill Stein 26 1%
Libertarian Chase Oliver 164 3%
Someone else, please specify 42 1%
Would not vote 18 0%
Don’t know/No opinion 25 0%
$100 says the real “never heard of Oliver” is closer to 99 percent than 61 percent. And where’s his campaign? Two months in and yet this lifetime member has yet to be solicited for a contribution.
Wow! I’ve been a member since 1974 but never a lifetime member. I must be on a different list than you because I get emails almost daily extolling the virtues of the Oliver/der Maat campaign and asking for money, of course.
Stein, 3rd time running, 31% never heard of her. Oliver at 61% never heard of him. Name recognition apparently does seep into the public awareness for 3rd party candidates running multiple times.
very + somewhat favorable / very + somewhat unfavorable:
Stein
3 + 10 / 12 + 14 = 0.5%
Oliver
2 + 6 / 6 + 6 = 0.66%
Oliver’s highest combined favorable numbers come from Muslims. Muslims also give Oliver his highest unfavorable numbers. 19% favorable, 25% unfavorable. That is the only group where more than half of the respondents said that they had heard of Oliver (43% said they had never heard of him.)
Oliver’s next highest combined favorable numbers come from those who voted for someone other than Trump or Biden in 2020. That group was 15% favorable, 9% unfavorable, and 52% had never heard of him.
The 3rd highest combined favorable numbers crosstab were a tie between government employees and urban men. Both were at 14% favorable. The urban men had 15% unfavorable and 50% never heard of him. The government employees had 10% unfavorable and 62% never heard of him.
The 13% combined favorability was a tie between those who were self employed and those who were a union member and head of a household. The union HoH gave him 16% unfavorable and 51% had never heard of him. The self employed gave him 12% unfavorable and 54% had never heard of him.
21% of Gen Z said they had heard something positive about Oliver in the past week, which was the highest of that category. That was followed by Hispanics (16%), and never Trump Republicans (15%).
Oliver gets the same 2% – 4% among gays and not gays, among parents and childless, and among those who got the covid vaccine and those who did not. MC concerns about Oliver’s stance on kids transitioning and voluntarily wearing a mask or getting a shot don’t show up in this data.
Given that this poll was focused on swing states, it is clear that the election is still close, and will be decided by the voters in those states. Looks like any third party could flip those states right now. Could be a repeat of 2016 when both Stein and Johnson covered the spread in MI, PA and WI.